BTC Price Metric Suggests Potential Sell-Off Beyond $33K for Bitcoin

Bitcoin, presently standing firm at over $30,000, may encounter an onslaught of speculative selling pressure once the value surpasses $33,000, according to recent analyses. In its latest weekly newsletter, data analytics firm Glassnode has raised concerns regarding a possible surge in speculative sales looming ahead.

Pressure from the SEC and the Impact on BTC

As of late, significant pressure has been applied to the foremost cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States by the SEC. However, a subsequent flurry of Bitcoin ETF applications, led by Blackrock, a leading global asset manager, incited a rally that pushed Bitcoin’s value from $25k to surpass $31k. This uptick is marked as a new high for the current year.

The upward surge was primarily initiated by US traders, followed by European and Asian investors. Glassnode expounded on these regional shifts by inspecting the flow of coins through exchanges where fiat currency enters the cryptocurrency market.

Shifting Market Sentiments

Market sentiment shifts can be gauged by observing exchange reactions to external influences, such as the recently announced SEC lawsuit against Binance and Coinbase. Currently, offshore exchanges indicate net outflows of 37.7k BTC/month, whereas the buying pressure on on-shore exchanges has dwindled to 3.2k BTC/month.

Another point of interest is the shift of wealth from high-time preference investors towards those with a more long-term hold (HODL) strategy. However, the persistence of this ‘supply shock’ trend still hinges on the influx of new demand in the market.

Short-term Bitcoin holders, considered more speculative investors, are now reclaiming attention. Their aggregate cost basis seems to establish broader Bitcoin price support near $26,000. Glassnode has flagged that a reverse effect could soon emerge.

Glassnode’s short-term holder MVRV indicator, which measures the market value of coins against the price at which they last moved, has reflected a strong reaction of the break-even level of MVRV = 1. 

Currently, the ratio stands at 1.12, implying that short-term holders are, on average, sitting on a 12% profit. If this ratio crosses 1.2 ($33.2k) and approaches 1.4 ($38.7k), the risk of market corrections heightens, pointing to potential selling pressure beyond $33k for Bitcoin speculators.