After the ceasefire deadline expired on the 8th of April, U.S. President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire period without specifying another deadline. The extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire reduced tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, lowering the risk of an immediate supply shock.
As oil fell from $110 to $94–$95, Bitcoin [BTC] lost its crisis-driven bid, which slowed reactive flows. This shift pushed markets away from hedge demand and back toward macro-driven positioning. As pressure faded, DVOL dropped below 46, implying that the market has cooled off from a high-volatility state to compression.
Implied volatility remained near 43%, while 7-day Realized Volatility stayed around 32%. This gap implied that risk was overpriced, which encouraged range-bound trading.
This explains why BTC remained held between $75k and $78k, as conviction weakened. Meanwhile, flat Funding Rates and roughly $25 billion in Open Interest (OI) in 24 hours as of press time showed leverage declined, which kept markets stable but delayed expansion.
Fading demand keeps Bitcoin range-bound
As volatility cooled, the expected follow-through from buyers never arrived, which left Bitcoin without upward momentum. The Coinbase Premium Index turned slightly positive on the 21st of April, suggesting modest U.S. institutional interest, yet this hasn’t translated into aggressive expansion.
As this weakness persisted, ETF inflows have slowed to $250 million from over $900 million, which signals institutional support shifted from expansion to stabilization. Meanwhile, daily volume held near $2.29 billion, which reflected hesitation rather than conviction.
Moreover, the downside also remained limited, which explains the lack of breakdown. MVRV held near 1.40, so holders stayed in profit without urgency to sell. As the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) hovered near 1.00, participants avoided losses and small gains, which reinforced holding behavior. This balance kept Bitcoin range-bound, delaying decisive moves.
Coiled spring forms as smart money stays sidelined
As volatility cooled, smart money stepped back from aggressive positioning, which left Bitcoin without a clear directional push. In fact, the OTC Unrealized Profit Ratio near 0.1383 remained far below the global MVRV at 1.40. This meant that miners had little incentive to sell, and this suppressed downside pressure.
Binance inflows also stayed low, confirming older coins remained inactive. This imbalance created a coiled spring, as supply stayed locked while demand hesitated, which set up a sharp move once a macro trigger returns.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin remained trapped in a volatility compression phase, as weak demand and declining leverage kept the price locked between $75k and $78k despite easing macro pressure.
- BTC was in a coiled spring setup, where inactive supply and sidelined capital build pressure for a sharp move once a macro catalyst returns.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-will-trumps-ceasefire-extension-keep-btc-price-range-bound/