Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price bullish prospects improve as realized losses cool, in a historically significant pattern.
- 60% of Bitcoin’s supply has remained in circulation over the last 12 months. What does this mean for the floor price?
- An analyst predicts the bull market could be about to make a comeback.
Bitcoin’s price has been bullish so far in the first half of the crypto market. It has even comfortably stuck its neck above $70,000 so far this week.
The bullish Bitcoin price performance has investors wondering whether this trend will prevail or whether another unexpected retracement will occur. Crypto market dynamics have been shifting lately, and may point to where the BTC crypto price may be headed next.
As per the latest data, the rising Bitcoin price has suppressed realized losses to nearly zero so far this month. This suggests that few are currently selling at a loss, which may be indicative of returning optimism.
Declining realized losses have historically hinted at seller exhaustion and preceded significant price bounces.
Here’s Why the $60,000-$70,000 Bitcoin Price Range Acted as a Strong Floor
Bitcoin price has formed a clear consolidation zone between $60,000 and $70,000 over the last 3 months. This happened after months of extreme sell pressure, consequently aligning with seller exhaustion and the formation of a new price floor.
Aside from declining realized losses, Bitcoin supply data also points to noteworthy investor behavior that helped secure the BTC crypto price floor. BTC HODL waves revealed that 60% of the cryptocurrency’s supply remained unchanged over the last 12 months.
The supply of long-term Bitcoin holders has also been rising. This has also provided a solid support band. However, it is worth noting that short-term sell pressure still remains active.
Short-term holder trends reflect the sell pressure that has suppressed BTC prices near or below $70,000. However, long-term holder activity hints at a rising pace of accumulation, which could put Bitcoin back on track for more recovery towards $80,000.
The latest Bitcoin price upside retested a key consolidation range resistance level. This suggests that BTC crypto price direction may be about to be tested again. Will it maintain the upside, or will another wave of profit-taking trigger another retracement?
Is the Bull Market Making a Comeback?
Bitcoin price was already up roughly 15% in the first half of April. This performance has reignited optimism about a potential recovery. After all, the market has so far demonstrated a solid support range in the last 3 months.
BTC’s rising RSI also signals that accumulation has been taking place within the consolidation zone. Enough demand may give BTC price a chance to finally secure enough momentum to escape the consolidation zone.
Such an outcome would likely pave the way for more recovery and encourage more demand. A crypto analyst by the pseudonym Crypto Sunmoon says the crypto market should be preparing for a bullish phase at least in the near term.
The analyst made the prediction based on recent observations, especially the recovering market participation. Bear markets usually see investor exits, but recovery prospects have the opposite effect.
The bullish Bitcoin price prediction aligns with the supply of long-term holders. This was just one of the multiple other signals. For example, the fear and greed index just surged to levels last seen on 19 March.
Although the market is currently gaining momentum, as evidenced by Bitcoin’s price action, macro factors have had the market in a chokehold for weeks. This means the same factors will heavily impact the market outcome.
If there’s anything that the recent market conditions have taught investors, it is that things are highly unpredictable right now. Therefore, Bitcoin traders should exercise caution.