In a recent analysis, cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital discussed the potential for a Bitcoin rally to $46,000 in the coming weeks and the significance of this move in light of the upcoming halving event. This analysis is based on historical patterns and market behavior, particularly in the lead-up to previous halving events. Notably, Bitcoin has a history of turning former resistance levels into new support levels.
Bear markets in the cryptocurrency space typically last for approximately a year, during which a macro accumulation area forms. Rekt Capital uses examples from 2015 and 2019, where price charts indicate rejections from a black diagonal trend line before the halving. However, post-halving, Bitcoin’s price tends to break beyond this resistance, marking a new bullish trend. Moreover, a successful retest of this resistance as support often follows the initial breakout.
The key takeaway from this analysis is that the cryptocurrency market tends to experience rejections before the halving event and then transitions to a more bullish sentiment after the halving. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could see a rally toward $46,000 as it approaches the halving event. This rally would likely involve revisiting the black trend line resistance, which has occurred in previous cycles.
It’s important to note that this trend line represents a declining resistance level over time. Therefore, while it may correspond to $46,000 this time, it will likely signify even higher prices in future cycles. Rekt Capital also mentions that leading up to the halving, there might be significant volatility, as historical data shows both upside and downside price fluctuations in the months preceding the halving.
Source: https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/bitcoin-price-prediction-2024-whats-in-store-for-btc-price-ahead-of-halving-event/