Bitcoin [BTC] miner flows now reflect a clear stress cycle, where operational pressure shapes market supply rather than discretionary selling.
Through 2022 and 2023, miners distributed between 15,000 and 20,000 BTC per quarter, steadily feeding market liquidity.
Then, selling cooled into 2024, with flows dropping below 10,000 BTC and briefly turning negative in Q4, signaling short-lived balance sheet recovery.
However, that relief faded, as Q1 2026 saw over 32,000 BTC sold, marking a forced liquidation phase. This shift emerges as hashprice falls near $33/PH/s/day, below the $35 breakeven, pushing nearly 20% of miners into loss.
As Miners Reserves decline toward 1.8 million BTC, supply enters circulation, yet absorption now determines whether price stabilizes or extends volatility.
Miner exhaustion takes over as selling pressure fades
As earlier forced selling begins to clear, miner behavior now shows a gradual shift from pressure toward exhaustion. Previously, strong Selling Power spikes aligned with cycle peaks, reflecting profit-taking and margin-driven distribution.
However, that dynamic weakens after the halving, as block rewards fall and weaker miners are pushed out, which explains the sharp decline in selling power toward -5.9.
More importantly, Miner’s Position Index (MPI) stayed in negative territory for weeks, often between -0.8 and -1.0, showing reduced outflows to exchanges.
That phase signaled that miners had already released the most urgent supply. Now, MPI is returning toward 0, which suggests selling is no longer accelerating but stabilizing.
This signals that the most urgent supply has already entered the market.
While this reduces downside pressure, it also shifts control toward demand, meaning price stability near $77,000 now depends on sustained capital inflows rather than miner behavior alone.
As miner pressure fades into exhaustion, the market pivots toward a demand-led phase where ETFs must absorb remaining supply. Inflows have printed repeated spikes above $300 million, which shows strong absorption capacity rather than sustained accumulation.
This divergence matters because MPI stayed deeply negative, reaching lows near -1.04 before stabilizing, signaling that miner outflows have already slowed materially. With structural selling pressure easing, price faces less forced resistance.
However, ETF participation remains episodic, not compounding, while spot volumes still lag derivatives.
As price holds near $77,000, continuation depends on whether institutional demand becomes consistent, while uneven inflows risk extending consolidation despite improving supply conditions.
Final Summary
- BTC has absorbed miner supply after the 32,000 BTC sell-off, shifting control toward demand near $77,000.
- Bitcoin now relies on consistent inflows, as uneven demand risks consolidation despite easing sell pressure.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-miners-dump-32k-btc-is-the-supply-overhang-finally-clearing/