Bitcoin: Is a move above $40k likely?

• A strong support between the 0.786 and 0.886 Fib levels may drive another BTC increase.
• Long-term holders continue to accumulate, thus backing the projection.

“Will Bitcoin [BTC] reach $50,000 by the end of the year?” This is one question that many holders of the king coin may have asked themselves considering how the price action has fared in the last few weeks. 

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-2024

Coupled with Standard Chartered’s earlier prediction in the year, it is not out of place to reminisce about the potential.

But is BTC showing any signs of inching closer to the aforementioned price point? Market analyst CRYPTOHELL, who publishes his analysis on CryptoQuant, weighed in on the discussion from a technical viewpoint.

The Fib has come into play

According to CRYPTOHELL, Bitcoin has the potential to hit between $44,000 to $47,300. The analyst arrived at this conclusion by looking at the Fibonacci levels.

This indicator provides benchmarks for price movement. It can also be vital in showing where a coin price is likely to reach or if it will reverse.

For the analyst, Bitcoin could hit the 0.0786-0.886 Fibonacci levels. Typically, if BTC hits the 0.786 or 0.886 Fib level, it means the coin has had solid support at 0.618. Therefore, a breakout is likely, and considering the current value, BTC may rise above $40,000.

Source: CryptoQuant

Like many other analysts, CRYPTOHELL also mentioned that macroeconomic factors like the spot ETF possible approval also depict a bullish thesis for Bitcoin. He wrote:

 “If we analyze the Bitcoin Exchange Flow, traders in both the spot and derivative markets are not aggressive in making decisions to sell their supplies in large quantities.”

A lively cohort and a ready-to-rise value

The potential for a Bitcoin jump was also reinforced by the liveliness. The Bitcoin liveliness increases as long-term holders sell off their holdings. If this happens, then BTC’s value would most likely decrease.

However, at press time, the metric had decreased significantly to 0.59. This drop implies that there has been more accumulation. Coupled with the current ETF narrative, accumulation could drive another BTC price increase.

Source: Glassnode

A look at the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) showed that the coin’s consolidation is not destined to last for long. At the time of writing, the 20 EMA (blue) had crossed over the 50 EMA (yellow). 

This is usually a bullish signal. So, it is very likely for BTC to reclaim $35,000 first. If the EMAs remain the same, then the coin may approach $40,000. Also, there was a golden cross as the 50 EMA (yellow) was also above the 200 EMA (cyan).

How much are 1,10,100 BTCs worth today?

Technically, a golden cross, as shown above, is alleged to establish a new uptrend. So, even after Bitcoin crosses $40,000, there is a chance that the uptick will continue. Furthermore, the Money Flow Index (MFI) agreed with the EMA indication as it increased.

Source: TradingView

At 78.55, the MFI showed that there was a lot of buying pressure for BTC. Hence, this leaves open the chance for a price increase.