Bitcoin Fell After 8 of 9 FOMC Meetings: Can ETFs Change It?

Fed rate expectations entered the session with no policy surprise priced in. Bitcoin ETFs still recorded heavier outflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. Ethereum ETFs also stayed in negative flow territory, despite gains across listed products. The data placed crypto markets between steady macro pricing and weaker ETF demand.

FedWatch Prices 100% Rate Hold as Bitcoin Faces Post-FOMC Test

Fed funds futures priced a full hold for the 29 April 2026 FOMC meeting. The target range stayed at 350 to 375 basis points across the latest reading. Traders assigned 100% probability to no change, with 0% for an ease and 0% for a hike. The contract used for the meeting was ZQJ6, expiring on 30 April 2026. It carried a mid price of 96.3588, prior volume of 6,411, and prior open interest of 422,968.

The one-day and one-week readings also placed no-change odds at 100%. One month earlier, the same range held a 95.9% probability. The higher 375 to 400 basis point range carried 4.1% one month earlier, then fell to zero. That move removed the remaining pricing for a hike before the meeting. The current rate band, therefore, became the only priced outcome.

This setup gives Bitcoin traders a cleaner macro event than recent FOMC meetings. Phemex’s primary data found BTC dropped within 48 hours after eight of the last nine FOMC meetings. Those declines came regardless of the policy decision. Today’s pricing creates a different backdrop because futures removed rate uncertainty before the announcement. Markets entered the meeting with no priced path for a hike or cut.

Bitcoin’s next move, therefore, depends less on the rate decision and more on the Fed message. A steady-rate outcome already sits fully inside futures pricing. Any market reaction can shift toward guidance, inflation language, and risk appetite after the statement. Crypto markets often react quickly when traders adjust leverage after central bank events. With no-change odds at 100%, BTC faces a positioning test rather than a rate surprise. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $89.68M Outflow as IBIT Leads Trading Volume 

According to the most recent update by SoSoValue, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily total net outflow of $89.68 million on April 28. Total value traded reached $1.35 billion, while total net assets stood at $100.39 billion. That asset base represented 6.56% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.  BlackRock’s IBIT led activity with $1.03 billion in value traded. However, the fund posted the largest daily outflow at $112.25 million. IBIT held $61.76 billion in net assets and controlled 4.03% of Bitcoin supply exposure. Its market price closed at $43.27, down 0.67% on the day.

Fidelity’s FBTC also recorded outflows, with $4.98 million leaving the fund. FBTC traded $144.83 million in value and held $14.16 billion in net assets. The fund’s market price fell 0.70% to $66.48. Its Bitcoin share stood at 0.93%, making it the second-largest product by net assets. Bitwise’s BITB added to the negative daily flow with $13.65 million in outflows. The fund traded $30.98 million and held $2.90 billion in net assets. Its market price declined 0.72% to $41.45. BITB carried a 0.20% fee and held a 0.19% Bitcoin share.

Ark 21Shares’ ARKB moved against the broader daily outflow trend. The fund recorded $41.20 million in net inflows on April 28. ARKB traded $24.49 million and held $2.86 billion in net assets. Its market price fell 0.76% to $25.32, matching the wider price weakness. Grayscale’s GBTC reported zero daily net inflow and zero Bitcoin inflow. The fund still held $11.53 billion in net assets. GBTC traded $72.93 million, while its market price dropped 0.72% to $59.34. Its 1.50% fee remained the highest among listed products.

Grayscale’s BTC product also reported no daily flow. It held $4.05 billion in net assets and traded $28.31 million. Its market price fell 0.68% to $33.77. The fund carried a 0.15% fee and a 0.26% Bitcoin share. Several smaller products recorded no daily net inflow. VanEck’s HODL, Invesco’s BTCO, Valkyrie’s BRRR, Franklin’s EZBC, and WisdomTree’s BTCW all showed zero flows. Their market prices declined between 0.66% and 0.72%. The session ended with broad ETF price losses and concentrated daily outflows from IBIT and BITB.

What About Ethereum ETFs?

While Bitcoin reported an outflow, Ethereum Spot ETFs remained in the red as they recorded a daily total net outflow of $21.80 million. Total value traded reached $428.61 million across listed products during the session. Total net assets stood at $13.57 billion after the update. That asset base equaled 4.90% of Ethereum’s market cap. BlackRock’s ETHA led trading activity with $325.83 million in value traded. The fund posted the largest daily outflow, with $13.17 million leaving the product.

ETHA held $7.26 billion in net assets at the close. Its market price rose 0.58% to $17.37 despite the outflow. Grayscale’s ETH product reported no daily net inflow. It held $2.09 billion in net assets and traded $25.60 million. The market price gained 0.55% to $21.84. Its fee stood at 0.15%, below Grayscale’s ETHE fee.

Grayscale’s ETHE recorded a $6.91 million daily outflow. The fund held $1.88 billion in net assets and traded $22.72 million. ETHE’s market price rose 0.54% to $18.69. Its 2.50% fee remained the highest among the listed Ethereum products. Fidelity’s FETH added another $1.72 million to daily outflows. The fund traded $18.11 million and held $1.29 billion in net assets. Its market price increased 0.53% to $22.93. FETH carried a 0.25% fee during the session.

Several smaller Ethereum ETFs reported no daily net inflow. BlackRock’s ETHB, Bitwise’s ETHW, VanEck’s ETHV, Franklin’s EZET, Invesco’s QETH, and 21Shares’ TETH all showed zero flows. Their market prices continued to rise throughout the session. Daily gains ranged from 0.44% to 0.69%. Bitwise’s ETHW traded $8.73 million and held $242.75 million in net assets. VanEck’s ETHV traded $724,470 and held $116.62 million. Franklin’s EZET traded $441,460 and held $46.11 million. Invesco’s QETH traded $75,340 and held $21.83 million.