Bitcoin (BTC) Rejected at $79K Again, Breakout or Drop Next?

• Bitcoin remains capped below $79K as repeated rejections highlight strong technical resistance pressure.
• Mixed signals emerge as weakening demand contrasts with a bullish MACD crossover on the weekly chart.
• The market faces a key decision zone as traders weigh support stability against renewed downside risk

Bitcoin stalled below $79,000 after another failed breakout attempt, underscoring persistent resistance near key technical levels. In a post on X, analyst Ardi said the asset again peaked near the bear market resistance band, a range that has repeatedly capped recent rallies.

It comes as the second decline within the same area, indicating ongoing selling as traders re-evaluate the momentum for buying. According to Ardi, Bitcoin often closes out this point during the latter part of a bear market, although this trend appears unlikely at the moment.

Source: X

However, a breakout from here can provide some hope of a rally soon, while a drop below this area would take attention elsewhere.

Repeated Rejections Signal Market Weakness

In his chart, Ardi has identified a general trend of decline because Bitcoin is still below the Bear Market Resistance Band, thereby cementing it as an important barrier.

From the data provided, there is a series of lower high levels that lead to a decline in price, followed by partial recovery. According to Ardi, this is because of a price compression period, signifying indecision in the market.

Nevertheless, rejection in the current period means that there is a lack of buyers’ conviction, even as the areas of support below are vital for traders’ consideration.

On-Chain Data and Indicators Offer Mixed Signals

Besides technical resistance, on-chain data also points to weakening demand trends. According to CryptoQuant analyst _OnChain, “Bitcoin’s price closed at $94K (Nov 16), below the SMA50 ($102K) on the weekly timeframe.” 

He added, “The SMA50 had already flattened and lost its positive slope. All of this was a strong sign of weakness in price action.”

Source: Cryptoquant

On-chain data shows weakening momentum ahead of the recent pullback, with apparent demand growth turning negative before the broader decline, signaling softer market participation. However, not all indicators point lower.

Data from CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin trading near $76,000, just below recent highs. At the same time, analysts note a bullish MACD crossover on the weekly chart, suggesting underlying momentum may still be stabilizing despite near-term pressure.

Sykodelic noted, “Not only do we have a 1W MACD bullish cross and break of trend.” He added, “We are at a very important level here, and the weekly close will be very important.” As a result, traders now weigh conflicting signals as Bitcoin approaches a decisive phase.

Related: Michael Saylor Tweets ‘Think Even Bigger’ as Strategy Hints at Its Largest Bitcoin Purchase