Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Approaching: What Do the Data Indicate?

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• The BTC price and trading volumes took a hit after the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs, falling below the psychological level of $40,000 to $38,521.
• On January 26, the expiry of 93,588 BTC options, with a notional value of $3.7 billion, is expected, and the put-call ratio is 0.52.
• In the last 24 hours, total BTC futures open interest increased by 0.41%, with a 0.60% rise in the last 4 hours. BTC open interest on CME decreased by 2%, reaching $4.59 billion.

What impact will the expiration of monthly options have on Bitcoin and Ethereum? Explore current data and option numbers!

Bitcoin and Ethereum Option Data

Global investors are poised for volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices as the first monthly expiry approaches following the approval and listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs. BTC prices and trading volumes took a hit after the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs, falling below the psychological level of $40,000 to $38,521.

The crypto fear and greed index, which stood at 80 (extreme greed) on January 11, has now dropped to 49 (neutral), indicating rapid changes in sentiment. Particularly, on January 26, the expiry of 93,588 BTC options, with a notional value of $3.7 billion, is expected, and the put-call ratio is 0.52. The maximum pain point is at $41,000, indicating that traders are under selling pressure. Traders may anticipate significant volatility as BTC is currently trading below the maximum pain price of $40,059.

In the last 24 hours, total BTC futures open interest increased by 0.41%, with a 0.60% rise in the last 4 hours. BTC open interest on CME decreased by 2%, reaching $4.59 billion, but on Binance, it increased by 1% to $4.11 billion. Additionally, the total BTC option open interest is around $15 billion. Furthermore, on January 26, the expiry of 929,432 ETH options, with a notional value of $2 billion, is anticipated, and the put-call ratio is 0.31. The maximum pain point is at $2,300, above the current price of $2,220. Traders may expect a recovery above the maximum pain point, but sudden price changes could occur due to other pressures.

Meanwhile, total ETH futures open interest is $7.78 billion, decreasing by 0.56% in the last 24 hours and increasing by 0.28% in the last 4 hours. There is a significant increase on three major ETH futures trading exchanges: Binance, Bybit, and OKX. Renowned analyst Michael van de Poppe predicts that as BTC enters the final stages of this correction, volatility will decrease. The descending range remains at $36-39K, and there will likely be an upward momentum soon with the start of the Bitcoin halving. However, analysts have warned of significant liquidation if BTC falls below $38,130.

Monitoring Macro Trends

The next few days are critical for crypto and stocks due to a series of macro data releases that could impact the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The US Q4 GDP growth slowed to 2%, the lowest growth in six quarters and significantly less than the 4.9% growth rate in Q3. The Fed’s tightening campaign has damaged the economy, but a tight job market is providing adequate support to consumer spending.

Markets are also awaiting Friday’s release of US PCE inflation data, the central bank’s preferred inflation measure. The market expects the annual core PCE to drop from 3% to 3.2%. The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) is at 4.16%, six-week highs, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is steady at 103.20 as markets await key economic data to assess economic performance.