Arthur Hayes Warns of Possible 40% Bitcoin Price Drop in March

• Even if the ETFs materialize, some analysts still think BTC is overdue for a more significant fall.
• A week of market chaos is on the horizon, according to a recent post by Hayes.

According to Arthur Hayes, the price of Bitcoin might fall by as much as 40% in March. A week of market chaos is on the horizon, according to a recent post by the ex-CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX. As the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S are expected to get regulatory clearance this year, investors in Bitcoin are generally optimistic.

When put together with April’s block subsidy halving, these occurrences suggest that institutional money and increased adoption might make this a watershed year for Bitcoin’s price. However, according to Hayes, everything isn’t going to rise in a straight line. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s efforts to stabilize an unstable economy while decreasing inflation are to blame, he claims.

High Volatility Expected

As he predicted, many banks would go insolvent at that time, prompting the Fed to announce a rate decrease and the return of the BTFP.

A program established in reaction to the regional banking crisis of 2023, the Federal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will conclude in March. In a week’s time, the FOMC will have to determine whether they will raise, sustain, or decrease interest rates.

Because of their extreme sensitivity to shifts in macro liquidity, cryptocurrencies will undoubtedly benefit from a Fed rescue, but only after the market recovers from the first shock of 2023-style volatility. However, even if the ETFs materialize, some analysts still think Bitcoin is overdue for a more significant fall.

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