Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin’s Value Depends on Money Supply

• Hayes says the quantity of money, not interest rates, determines Bitcoin price long-term.
• Three Iran war scenarios all end with central bank money printing benefiting Bitcoin.
• Hayes watches the MOVE Index crossing 130 as his signal that money printing has begun.

Arthur Hayes has barely traded this year. The BitMEX co-founder described the first quarter of 2026 as a “no-trade zone,” with his fund doing almost nothing beyond slowly building its Hyperliquid position.

The reason behind it is a specific conviction about what drives Bitcoin’s price and a view that the current environment has not yet produced the signal he is waiting for. 

That signal is money printing. “I believe the quantity of money determines the price of Bitcoin, not its price. Bitcoin has no cash flows, so the discount rate derived from central bank policy rates is irrelevant to valuing the magic internet money,” Hayes wrote. 

Three Scenarios, One Destination

Hayes laid out three ways the Iran conflict could be resolved, each with different short-term pain but the same eventual outcome.

First Scenario: If the war ends and the status quo returns, Bitcoin might bounce toward $80,000 to $90,000, but the AI deflation story continues underneath.

Hayes described an entrepreneur who used AI agents to complete six months of engineering work in four days, then cut half his staff. Until the Fed prints to plug the banking system, Bitcoin does not make a sustained move.

Scenario Two: If Iran cements control of the Strait of Hormuz, nations start selling US Treasuries to buy gold and yuan. The petrodollar cracks. Initial Bitcoin selling follows as investors de-risk, but eventually the financial system wobbles enough that central banks have no choice. Hayes watches $60,000 as the line. 

Scenario Three: If the US destroys Iran’s capacity to interdict shipping, Hayes argues this may paradoxically be the most dangerous scenario, potentially triggering Iran to take Gulf energy infrastructure down with it and forcing every central bank to print simultaneously.

“The risk-reward for attempting to front-run this situation isn’t worth it. I hope that during any generalized TradMarket financial crash Bitcoin can hold $60,000.” he said

What He Is Actually Watching

One index. The MOVE Index, which measures US bond market volatility. When it crosses 130, Hayes says money printing follows. That is when the no-trade zone ends.

He said that fixed or near-fixed supply assets like Bitcoin and gold are likely to rally as central and commercial bank credit expands to fund government war spending and commodity stockpiling.

Until that moment, Hayes is patient. 

Related: US Stocks Head toward Record Highs as Hopes Rise Over New US-Iran Negotiations