Arthur Hayes of BitMEX Predicts a Bitcoin (BTC) Price Drop Below $40,000

• Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts a Bitcoin price drop below $40,000 due to macroeconomic factors.
• The crypto market faces uncertainty as the community awaits the quarterly announcement from the U.S. Treasury.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, makes an ominous prediction about the price of Bitcoin (BTC), anticipating that it will fall below $40,000, and this will happen before the quarterly U.S. Treasury refunding announcement.

In his recent Bitcoin price prediction, Arthur Hayes, billionaire and co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange platform BitMEX, shared his pessimistic outlook last Monday. Hayes mentioned, “I think we break $40,000.”

This change in his perception comes after he made a bearish long-term prediction, where he mentioned a value of $5,000 for Ethereum (ETH) and $200 for Solana (SOL). In addition, his view has been influenced by the upcoming quarterly repayment announcement from the U.S. Treasury.

Arthur Hayes’ Bitcoin Price Prediction

In his January 22 publication, Arthur Hayes, who is one of the co-founders of BitMEX, expressed his bearish outlook on Bitcoin. Hayes stated:

“BTC seems to be pretty weak. I think we break $40,000. I have taken long positions in put option contracts expiring March 29 with a strike price of $35,000.”

He added that the price of BTC will continue to fall until the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement on Jan. 31. U.S.Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen could exert additional negative influence on the BTC price with her bearish comments, but the crypto community expects a paradigm shift in market momentum.

In an earlier post on the same day, Arthur Hayes noted that both the SPX (S&P 500 stock index) and BTC “ceased their concurrent ascent following the launch of the US BTC ETF. “ This suggests liquidity issues in the markets as traders await important macroeconomic announcements.

According to Coinglass data, there have been $140 million worth of settlements in the last 24 hours. More than 63,000 traders have settled in the same period, with the largest single settlement order in OKX’s ETH-USD-SWAP pair worth $3.20 million. Nearly $40 million was settled after Arthur Hayes’ X.

$BTC looks mad heavy. I think we break $40k. I went long some 29Mar $35k strike puts. I think we dump into the 31Jan US Treasury qtly refunding annc. Is Janet Yellen or Talkin’? pic.twitter.com/lyjqNmldzh

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 22, 2024

After Arthur Hayes’ publication, the price of BTC experienced a prolonged fall, reaching $40,027. Currently, the price stands at $40,822. In the last 24 hours, the low and high values have been $40,364 and $41,855, respectively. In addition, trading volume has increased 72% in the last 24 hours, indicating increased interest among traders.

In the latest chart dates, there is a convergence and subsequent crossing of the 9-day SMA below the 21-day SMA (a technical signal known as a “crossover of death”), which could indicate the start of a downtrend or at least a warning sign for bullish investors.

Trading volume, indicated by the bars at the bottom of the chart, has shown increased activity on certain days of price volatility, with higher volume bars during downward moves, which could be interpreted as a sign of selling pressure.

From a macroeconomic standpoint, the strengthening U.S. dollar and rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are putting downward pressure on Bitcoin. The US dollar index (DXY) has reversed its trend from 101 in early January, now reaching 103.50.

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