Zcash Price Warning: Another Major Crash Incoming?

Zcash price remains under heavy pressure as bearish momentum continues to build across the market. After losing nearly 35% since late January, Zcash (ZEC) is now slipping deeper inside a falling channel that has guided prices lower for months.

Weak volume, fading whale interest, and shrinking derivatives activity are all reinforcing the downside trend. With multiple indicators flashing warning signs, charts now suggest that Zcash may be entering another breakdown phase.

Falling Channel and OBV Breakdown Show Sustained Selling Pressure

Zcash has been trading inside a clear falling channel since November, marked by consistent lower highs and lower lows.

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After peaking above $740, ZEC entered this declining range and has already experienced one major collapse of more than 56% inside the channel, also the breakdown target. Each rebound has become weaker, showing that buyers are unable to shift momentum.

The weakening structure is confirmed by On-Balance Volume (OBV) tracks buying and selling pressure by adding volume on up days and subtracting it on down days. Rising OBV suggests accumulation, while falling OBV signals distribution.

From early November through late January, Zcash’s OBV was forming an ascending trendline. This showed that some Zcash buyers were still trying to accumulate, even as the price traded inside a falling channel.

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That support finally failed on January 29. Since this breakdown, Zcash has already fallen nearly 36%. This validates the OBV signal and shows that the loss of volume support directly translated into lower prices.

On-chain behavior reinforces this trend. Over the past seven days, whale holdings have declined by around 36%, with large wallet counts falling toward the 8,000 range. This suggests that major holders are trimming exposure rather than accumulating.

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At the same time, exchange balances have surged by nearly 160%. Rising exchange supply usually means more tokens are being prepared for sale, increasing immediate selling pressure.

Together, the falling channel, OBV breakdown, whale reduction, and exchange inflows point to sustained distribution. Retail participation is weakening, long-term holders are reducing exposure, and supply is moving toward selling venues. This combination explains why ZEC continues to struggle to hold support.

Derivatives Activity Weakens as Remaining Long Positions Add Risk

With spot participation fading, the next question is whether derivatives can push prices up, as they have during past short squeezes.

So far, the data suggests limited support.

Zcash open interest peaked near $1.13 billion in December. It has now dropped to around $395 million, a decline of nearly 65%. This shows that speculative interest has cooled sharply, with many traders closing positions and moving to the sidelines.

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When open interest falls this much, it signals reduced conviction. There is less leverage in the system to drive strong rebounds, and fewer traders willing to defend key levels.

At the same time, funding rates have cooled since October but remain slightly positive. Positive funding means that long positions still dominate, even though overall participation is shrinking. In simple terms, fewer traders are active, but many of those who remain are still betting on higher prices.

This creates a fragile setup. If prices fall further, these remaining longs become vulnerable to liquidation. When liquidations occur in low-liquidity conditions, they can trigger rapid downside moves.

So even though derivatives no longer have enough “fuel” to drive a major rally, the presence of exposed long positions still amplifies breakdown risk. Instead of supporting price, leverage now increases the chance of accelerated selling.

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Key Zcash Price Levels Show Why the $100 Zone Remains in Focus

The Zcash price remains trapped inside its falling channel, with the lower trendline continuing to guide the price lower. The first major support zone sits at $230.

A sustained daily close below $230 would expose the next support near $212, but not without triggering a trendline breakdown.

If $212 fails, the channel projection and Fibonacci extensions both point toward the $103 region. This zone represents the full downside move implied by the current structure.

On the upside, recovery remains difficult. ZEC must first reclaim $286 to regain short-term stability. A move above $389 is needed to improve the medium-term structure. A rally toward $557 would require a major revival in volume, whale accumulation, and derivatives participation, making it unlikely under current conditions.

As long as Zcash remains below $230 and fails to hold $212, downside risks dominate. Without renewed participation and capital inflows, the charts continue to favor a move toward the $100 zone.