Zcash: Analyzing why ZEC still risks a price drop toward $301

After the market crash, Zcash [ZEC] dropped to levels last witnessed in early December, touching a low of $335.

In fact, ZEC has posted lower lows for five straight days, underscoring strong bearish pressure. As a result, the altcoin fell below its 20, 50, and 100 short‑term EMAs.

At press time, ZEC traded at $347, down 5.98%, extending a week-long downside movement. 

With ZEC dropping below its short-term MAs, investors, especially whales, have jumped into the market buying the dip.

ZEC whales are buying the dip

Since Zcash was rejected at $449 a week ago, whale activity has fallen significantly. At press time, data from TradingView showed that Whale Buy Volume peaked at 152.4k. 

While whale buy activity has reduced signaling, reduced risk appetite, and increased risk aversion, they have remained active. 

Source: TradingView

At the same time, the Average Buy Volume hovered around 29k, holding this level for three consecutive days. This suggested that whales have remained relatively active despite the continued market weakness. 

Notably, Onchain Lens observed that a newly created wallet withdrew 8,551 ZEC, worth $3.12 million from Binance, and could withdraw more.

The wallet now holds 12.5k ZEC, worth $4.54 million, according to Arkham data. Often, when whales continue to hold on and also add more positions during a downturn, it signals strong conviction.

Zcash records $414M in capital flow

Furthermore, exchange activities have echoed this accumulation phase. According to CoinGlass data, Zcash Spot Netflow has remained in the negative zone for 8 consecutive days.

At the time of writing, Spot Netflow was -$5.87 million, indicating increased capital inflow into the asset. In fact, over this period, investors have pumped approximately $414 million into the market.

Source: CoinGlass

Usually, increased outflows increases scaricty, thus reducing supply in circulation, which absorbs rising selling pressure. Often, such a market setup accelerates upward strength, leading to higher prices.

Is this demand enough?

While whales continued to accumulate as ZEC dropped, downside pressure has intensified, reflecting selling by other participants.

Moreover, the downward momentum remained elevated as evidenced by Zcash’s Stochastic RSI. This momentum indicator made a bearish crossover days ago and fell to 11.96, as of writing, further deepening the oversold zone.

Source: TradingView

When this indicator reaches such levels, it signals that bears have fully overpowered bulls, taking control of the market. As a result, whale demand has been insufficient to offset selling pressure.

With bearish momentum prevailing, downside risk remains high, and ZEC could fall toward $301. However, if whale demand strengthens, Zcash may stage another rally and target immediate resistance at $390.

Final Thoughts

• Zcash whale purchased 8,551 ZEC, worth $3.12 million rising total holdings to 12.5k ZEC worth $4.54 million. 
• ZEC dropped 5.98%, extending its long week of downward pressure and risking a drop to $300.