‘Yes’ shares surged before the news – Polymarket’s Maduro warning decoded

While the world was shocked by the sudden arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Polymarket had already shown an early warning.

Hours before the news became public, three digital wallets on the prediction platform Polymarket placed high-risk bets on Maduro being removed from power.

These trades paid off with a total profit of $630,484 and sparked a political uproar in Washington D.C.

Breaking down the windfall

On the 4th of January, blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain revealed that these wallets looked suspicious.

They received funds in advance, stayed dormant for days, and then bought “Yes” shares just before the military operation, when the market viewed the outcome as nearly impossible.

In this incident, one primary wallet, “0x31a5,” turned a relatively modest $34,000 stake into a staggering $410,000, a return of over 1,100% in a single afternoon.

Needless to say, the suspicious timing of these trades has triggered an immediate response in Washington.

Lawmakers are worried that decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket may now be leaking sensitive government information. This has prompted U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres to introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026.

The bill aims to ban federal officials and executive-branch employees from betting on outcomes they might influence directly.

What geopolitical tensions are going around?

President Donald Trump announced a large-scale U.S. military strike on Venezuela. U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and flew them out immediately.

Soon after, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi confirmed that prosecutors in the Southern District of New York indicted the couple on charges including narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses.

Market reactions

Interestingly, while the political landscape was being redrawn, the crypto markets remained notably resilient.

Bitcoin [BTC] initially felt the tremor, dipping roughly 0.5% to find support at $89,300.

However, this drop was short-lived as the coin clawed back to just under the $90,000 psychological resistance level.

At press time, the king crypto traded at $91,151.80 after a hike of 1.41% in the past 24 hours as per CoinMarketCap.

Final Thoughts

• The precision of the trades raises serious concerns. It suggests this was not speculation, but access to information far beyond what markets should know.
• The “ghost wallets” show how easy it is to weaponize DeFi platforms.