XRP (XRP) Price: Leverage Reset and Accumulation Signals Point to Q4 Recovery

The digital asset has been consolidating within a descending triangle pattern on daily charts. This formation has pushed XRP back toward a critical support level at $2.70, which has been repeatedly tested.

Futures market data reveals cooling speculative interest. Open interest dropped significantly from $11 billion to $7.5 billion during the correction period, indicating reduced market exposure.

One positive development is that XRP’s estimated leverage ratio on Binance has reset to its yearly average. This metric measures open interest relative to exchange reserves and suggests traders are no longer overextended.

The reduced leverage decreases the likelihood of cascading liquidations during price corrections. This factor supports price stability even as the market moves through uncertain periods.

Onchain indicators provide additional reasons for optimism. Net taker volume has moved closer to neutral territory after a period of selling pressure.

This shift is supported by an uptick in aggregated spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), which tracks whether buyers or sellers control the market. The changing dynamic suggests holders may already be entering accumulation mode.

Technical Analysis Points to Recovery

Chart analysis identifies a daily/weekly fair value gap between $2.35 and $2.65. This zone aligns closely with Fibonacci retracement levels in the 0.5 to 0.618 range.

Such confluence of technical factors strengthens the probability that XRP could stabilize and rebound from this area if prices drop below the $2.70 support.

Market structure observers note that XRP’s current pattern resembles a fractal from Q1 that preceded a sharp breakout. If this pattern repeats, XRP could see gains of 60% to 85% during Q4.

Crypto trader Javon Marks maintains a bullish outlook, setting a target of $4.80 as long as prices hold above the key $2.47 level. This projection would represent a 66% increase from current levels.

Other analysts highlight $3.30 as the critical breakout threshold that could determine the next major move. This level aligns with the 270.2% Fibonacci extension and represents a significant technical barrier.

At the current state of the market, not much has changed with $XRP's target at $4.80 as its prices continue to hold above a key $2.47 level!

As long as this level holds, prices may only be prepping for another +66% upside… https://t.co/p3S1yTtGfR pic.twitter.com/SPjqtCNVSl

— JAVONMARKS (@JavonTM1) September 3, 2025

Elliott Wave Projections

Technical analysts applying Elliott Wave theory suggest XRP has completed a corrective cycle earlier in 2025 and currently remains in Wave 2, characterized by sideways accumulation.

According to this framework, once momentum shifts, XRP would enter Wave 3, often considered the strongest impulse phase in Elliott Wave patterns. This could potentially drive prices toward $5.90 before extending to higher levels.

Longer-term projections based on Fibonacci extensions place possible resistance near $18.20 at the 361.8% level, though such targets depend on maintaining the technical structure and supportive market conditions.

External factors may provide additional catalysts. Reports indicate the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has reviewed over 90 applications related to XRP. If approved, exchange-traded funds could expand market access and attract institutional investors.

The approval of leveraged XRP futures ETFs in recent weeks marks a milestone for market accessibility and demonstrates growing interest in structured XRP products.

Bitcoin’s performance during the current cycle, with analysts projecting a range between $135,000 and $195,000, could create favorable conditions for major altcoins like XRP.

Market observers note that XRP often consolidates for extended periods before delivering strong upward phases. The current setup shows similar characteristics to previous accumulation phases.

Analysts emphasize that a firm close above $3.30 would likely push XRP to retest the recent local high near $3.70. Breaking through that zone could trigger a new price discovery phase and open the door to higher targets.

Projections for 2025 center around $5.90 in the medium term, with longer-term structures suggesting potential for $10 or higher, assuming supportive regulatory environment and continued market demand.

For now, attention remains on the $3.30 breakout level. Whether XRP establishes this threshold as new support will help define its trajectory through the remainder of the cycle.