XRP Tests Lower Bollinger Band at $2.23 as Evernorth IPO Plans Counter Routine Escrow Release

Quick Take

• XRP trading at $2.23 (down 1.7% in 24h)
• Evernorth’s $1B IPO plans to accumulate XRP offset routine escrow release concerns
• XRP price testing lower Bollinger Band support at $2.20
• Following broader crypto weakness with Bitcoin declining

Market Events Driving Ripple Price Movement

The XRP price faced mixed catalysts over the past week, with Ripple’s routine November 1st escrow release of 1 billion tokens creating selling pressure despite Evernorth’s bullish IPO announcement from late October. The monthly escrow unlock, valued at approximately $2.5 billion, follows Ripple’s established pattern where 70-80% typically gets re-locked, leaving only 200-300 million XRP entering active circulation.

More significantly for long-term XRP price dynamics, Ripple-backed Evernorth announced plans to go public through a merger, targeting over $1 billion in capital to become the largest publicly traded XRP treasury company. This institutional accumulation strategy represents a potential demand catalyst that could absorb future escrow releases.

Trading on technical factors in absence of major catalysts over the past 48 hours, the XRP price has followed broader cryptocurrency market weakness. Bitcoin’s decline has created correlated selling pressure across altcoins, with XRP’s 1.72% drop reflecting this broader risk-off sentiment in digital assets.

XRP Technical Analysis: Testing Lower Band Support

Price Action Context

Ripple technical analysis reveals XRP trading below all major moving averages, with the current $2.23 price sitting 6.6% below the 20-day SMA at $2.45 and 16.2% below the 50-day SMA at $2.66. The XRP price action shows clear bearish momentum divergence from Bitcoin, which has maintained better relative strength against its own moving averages.

Volume analysis from Binance spot data shows $735.7 million in 24-hour trading, indicating sustained institutional interest despite the pullback. This volume level suggests active participation rather than thin liquidity driving price movements.

Key Technical Indicators

The RSI at 35.23 places XRP in oversold territory but not extremely so, leaving room for further downside before reaching capitulation levels. The MACD histogram at -0.0186 confirms bearish momentum, though the relatively shallow reading suggests this isn’t a panic selling scenario.

Most critically for near-term Ripple technical analysis, the Bollinger Band %B position at 0.0648 shows XRP testing the lower band at $2.20, a key support level that has historically provided bounce opportunities.

Critical Price Levels for Ripple Traders

Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)

• Resistance: $2.45 (20-day moving average confluence)
• Support: $2.07 (24-hour low and immediate technical floor)

Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios

A break below $2.07 support would target the $1.25 strong support level, representing a potential 44% decline from current levels. Conversely, reclaiming the $2.45 resistance would signal a potential bounce toward the $2.70 upper Bollinger Band, offering 21% upside potential.

XRP Correlation Analysis

Bitcoin correlation remains strong as XRP follows the broader cryptocurrency market lower, though with slightly greater magnitude. The 1.72% XRP decline compares to more modest Bitcoin weakness, suggesting altcoin-specific selling pressure.

Traditional market correlation appears muted, with XRP price movement driven primarily by crypto-native factors rather than S&P 500 or gold movements. This suggests the current weakness stems from digital asset rotation rather than macro risk-off sentiment.

Trading Outlook: Ripple Near-Term Prospects

Bullish Case

Recovery above $2.45 resistance would confirm the lower Bollinger Band held as support, targeting a move back toward $2.70. The Evernorth IPO development provides a fundamental backdrop for accumulation on weakness, potentially supporting XRP price at current levels.

Bearish Case

Failure to hold $2.07 support could trigger algorithmic selling toward $1.25, particularly if Bitcoin continues weakening. The monthly escrow release overhang may persist until market participants see evidence of re-locking.

Risk Management

Traders should consider stop-losses below $2.05 to limit downside exposure, with position sizing reflecting the elevated ATR of $0.16 indicating above-average volatility. The technical setup favors small position sizes given the proximity to key support levels.

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