XRP Stabilizes After Selloff, But $1.68 Still Key

• XRP consolidates near $1.40 after extreme volatility and aggressive prior rallies.
• Derivatives open interest dropped to $2.3B, signaling broad market deleveraging.
• Spot flows stabilize with modest inflows, reducing immediate selling pressure.

XRP trades in a narrow band after months of sharp volatility. The token recently unwound an aggressive rally that pushed derivatives exposure to extreme levels. Consequently, price action now reflects consolidation rather than expansion. 

On the 4-hour chart, XRP/USD sits between well-defined support and resistance zones. Moreover, both spot and futures data show a cooling phase after earlier speculative excess. Traders now watch whether the current base near $1.40 can trigger recovery momentum.

Price Structure Shows Compression

The broader structure turned bearish after XRP lost the $1.92 Fibonacci level. Since then, the chart has printed consistent lower highs and lower lows. However, the selloff stalled above the $1.40–$1.42 zone. That area now acts as the short-term floor.

Price previously topped near the $2.14–$2.41 Fibonacci cluster. A swift decline followed and briefly wicked toward $1.12. Consequently, market participants now treat $1.12 as macro support.

The Bollinger mid-band has flattened on the 4-hour timeframe. This shift signals volatility compression. Additionally, Stochastic RSI reset from overbought conditions and now hovers near lower levels. That cooling momentum favors sideways trading unless support breaks.

Immediate resistance stands at $1.50–$1.51. A decisive push above this ceiling could target $1.62–$1.68. Beyond that, $1.77 remains a major recovery barrier.

Open Interest Decline Signals Deleveraging

Derivatives positioning has changed dramatically in recent months. Open interest surged above $10 billion during the prior rally. That spike reflected aggressive leveraged exposure.

However, open interest now sits near $2.3 billion. This steady decline shows meaningful deleveraging across the market. Significantly, the contraction reduces the probability of sudden liquidation cascades. It also suggests that speculative enthusiasm has cooled.

Earlier in the cycle, open interest climbed from below $1 billion to above $4 billion quickly. Hence, the recent drawdown represents a structural reset rather than minor fluctuation.

Spot Flows Hint at Stabilization

Spot exchange flows show persistent volatility with a notable outflow bias. Large withdrawals exceeded $50 million several times. One capitulation event approached $170 million in net outflows.

However, recent netflow readings show stabilization near neutral. Modest inflows around $9 million indicate reduced selling pressure. Additionally, previous strong inflows aligned with price rallies during mid-year momentum.

Technical Outlook For XRP Price

Key levels remain clearly defined as XRP consolidates within a broader corrective structure. The asset trades between firm support near $1.40 and layered resistance overhead. Price recently stabilized after a sharp selloff that tested the $1.12 macro swing low. Consequently, the current structure reflects compression rather than expansion.

Upside levels: $1.50–$1.51 stands as immediate resistance and recent rejection territory. A clean breakout could open the path toward $1.62–$1.68, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. Beyond that, $1.77 represents the 0.5 Fib barrier and a key level to reclaim for medium-term recovery momentum.

Downside levels: $1.40–$1.42 remains the short-term range floor. Losing this zone would expose $1.30–$1.28 minor demand. A deeper breakdown could revisit $1.12, which marks the broader structural base.

The technical picture suggests XRP is compressing between horizontal support and descending resistance. Additionally, the Bollinger Bands show reduced volatility, signaling a potential expansion phase ahead. Momentum indicators have cooled from overbought conditions, which supports sideways stabilization rather than immediate continuation lower.

Will XRP Move Higher?

XRP’s short-term outlook depends on whether buyers defend $1.40 long enough to challenge $1.50 convincingly. A sustained move above $1.50 could shift sentiment toward $1.62 and potentially $1.77. However, failure to hold support risks renewed pressure toward $1.28 and possibly $1.12.

For now, XRP remains in a decisive zone. Volatility compression suggests a breakout is approaching. Directional confirmation will likely depend on volume strength and broader market sentiment.