XRP has returned above the closely watched $2 mark, a level that has repeatedly acted as a long-term barrier for the token over the past several years.
The move has drawn renewed attention to the XRP price today, not only because of the psychological importance of the level but also due to a technical structure suggesting that the current rally may pause before the next decisive move. Market data, technical patterns, and on-chain trends are now aligning to frame a more nuanced XRP price prediction, one that balances short-term caution with longer-term structural strength.
XRP Price Today Holds Above $2 as Market Structure Tightens
At the time of writing, the current XRP price is hovering around $2.01, reflecting a modest daily gain and placing the token firmly back above the $2 threshold. This recovery has occurred within an ascending triangle pattern on the four-hour chart, characterized by rising lows and flat resistance near $2.12. Such formations typically signal compression in price action, where volatility contracts before a breakout or breakdown.
XRP was holding above $2, up 5.22% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin
The price of XRP has traded within a relatively narrow intraday range between roughly $2.00 and $2.04, suggesting that traders are waiting for confirmation rather than chasing momentum. While short-term price action remains cautious, the broader setup indicates that XRP is no longer in free fall and is instead transitioning into a more balanced consolidation phase.
Technical Outlook Points to FVG Pullback Before Consolidation
From a technical standpoint, analysts are closely watching a Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone between $1.75 and $1.80. This area represents an unfilled liquidity region created during prior impulsive moves. A controlled retracement into this zone would not necessarily weaken the broader structure. Instead, it could serve as a reset, allowing leveraged positions to unwind and spot demand to re-enter at more stable levels.
XRP trades near $2.02 in a 4H ascending triangle, eyeing a short-term pullback to $1.75–$1.80 before a potential breakout. Source: officialjackofalltrades on TradingView
Market participants tracking the XRP price chart note that immediate support lies around $1.88–$1.91, while the FVG zone below remains a deeper area of interest. Resistance, meanwhile, continues to cap upside near $2.12, with a confirmed break potentially opening the door to higher targets in the $2.20–$2.50 range. Until that occurs, the technical bias remains neutral, with short-term downside risk balanced by longer-term breakout potential.
Long-Term Holders Accumulate as Exchange Balances Fall
On-chain data adds another layer to the evolving XRP crypto price narrative. According to metrics shared by market analysts referencing data from Glassnode, XRP balances held on centralized exchanges have dropped to their lowest level in roughly eight years. Estimates place exchange-held supply near 1.5 billion tokens, marking a decline of more than 50% since late 2025.
XRP exchange balances have fallen to an 8-year low of 1.5 billion tokens, down 57% since October 2025, as holders move coins to cold storage, easing sell pressure. Source: @TheCryptoSquire via X
Commenting on this trend, crypto analyst John Squire noted that “coins are leaving exchanges, not rushing in,” adding that reduced exchange balances often reflect longer-term holding behavior rather than panic selling. Historically, similar conditions have preceded periods of price expansion, though such moves have not always been immediate. For the XRP value outlook, this shift suggests declining near-term sell pressure, even as escrow releases continue in the background.
Market Commentary Highlights Cautious Optimism
Despite lingering bearish sentiment in some corners of the market, several traders view the current range as constructive. Analyst Hardy, known online as Degen_Hardy, recently described the $1.80–$2.00 zone as a technically solid accumulation area. He framed the broader downtrend since mid-2025 as an opportunity for dollar-cost averaging, emphasizing a multi-year horizon rather than short-term price swings.
DegenHardy frames XRP’s multi-month downtrend since July 2025 as a buying opportunity, recommending dollar-cost averaging between $1.80–$2.00 for a two-year hold. Source: @Degen_Hardy via X
This perspective gained traction after XRP rebounded sharply back above $2, validating the idea that demand remains active near established support. While such commentary does not guarantee future performance, it reflects a shift in tone from outright pessimism toward measured, longer-term positioning.
Near-Term Risk and Structural Strength
Looking ahead, the XRP price prediction remains closely tied to how the price behaves around the FVG zone and the $2.12 resistance level. A pullback followed by sustained consolidation would reinforce the view that XRP is building a base rather than rolling over. Conversely, a clean break above resistance could confirm the ascending triangle breakout and shift momentum decisively higher.
For now, the XRP market cap, which stands above $120 billion, reflects both renewed interest and ongoing uncertainty. With ETF inflows, declining exchange balances, and continued development on the XRP Ledger, the market appears to be laying groundwork rather than chasing speculative extremes. As 2026 approaches and regulatory clarity remains in focus, particularly around the broader XRP SEC narrative, XRP’s next major move is likely to emerge from this period of consolidation rather than from abrupt volatility.
In that context, XRP reclaiming $2 may prove less about immediate upside and more about re-establishing structural credibility- an essential step before any sustained breakout can take shape.