XRP Price Prediction: Can XRP Ride Ceasefire Optimism and Derivatives Strength to a $3 Breakout?

After briefly plunging below the $2 mark, XRP price rebounded sharply, reviving bullish hopes across the Ripple market. The recovery followed a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which calmed geopolitical tensions and injected fresh optimism into global risk assets—including the Ripple crypto sector.

At the time of writing on Tuesday, XRP trades at around $2.17, a notable recovery from Sunday’s low of $1.90. The rebound was accompanied by a significant uptick in derivatives activity and a surge in trading volume, signaling a possible shift in market momentum.

Geopolitical Calm Fuels Risk-On Sentiment

The geopolitical developments appear to have played a pivotal role in reversing sentiment. After weeks of escalating tension, the ceasefire deal between Iran and Israel led to a sharp decline in market anxiety. This shift, combined with the Federal Reserve’s cautious tone on rate policy, contributed to a risk-on environment that lifted Ripple XRP news into the spotlight.

XRP was trading at around $2.178 at press time. Source: XRP Liquid Index (XRPLX) via Brave New Coin

While Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained that interest rate cuts are not imminent, his acknowledgment of potential tariff-driven inflation has reinforced expectations that the central bank may eventually pivot. “For the time being, we are well-positioned to wait,” Powell stated in prepared remarks, suggesting a more measured approach to monetary policy.

Derivatives Market Signals Bullish Reversal

The XRP derivatives market has shown clear signs of recovery. Open Interest (OI) rose by nearly 5% to $3.74 billion and the volume of trades rose more than 10% to $9.5 billion, according to CoinGlass data. Of significance, short liquidations in the previous 24 hours totaled $9.3 million, surpassing longs at $3.5 million. The difference represents a short squeeze scenario and reflects growing bullish sentiment on the part of the investors.

XRP Futures Open Interest chart. Source: CoinGlass

On Binance, its 2.38 long-to-short ratio only supports this opinion more so, with a strong bullish bias. Such metrics are often precursors to larger moves, especially when backed by a supportive macro backdrop and technical structure.

Technical Outlook: Can XRP Reclaim $3?

From a technical standpoint, XRP price prediction models appear increasingly bullish. The token is trading well above key weekly moving averages: the 50-week EMA at $1.82, the 100-week EMA at $1.38, and the 200-week EMA at $1.01. These levels reinforce XRP’s bullish posture and provide a safety net for any near-term corrections.

XRP price prediction chart by crypto analyst Kyle Kinnaird. Source: TradingView

Analysts are closely watching resistance near $2.50—an area previously tested in May. A break above this level could open the door to the $3 zone, where a large pool of daily liquidity remains untapped. However, the MACD indicator continues to flash caution. Since early March, the MACD has been in bearish territory, with the blue line trailing the red signal line and red histogram bars dominating.

Still, a bullish crossover could trigger the next leg higher. Traders are watching for such confirmation, which could signal renewed buying interest and a shift in sentiment.

Strategic Zones and Liquidity Triggers

The recent drop below $2 created what some traders view as a “liquidity grab”—a common tactic in volatile markets. Price swept a widely watched trendline, shaking out weak hands before bouncing sharply. This pattern often signals the start of a new upward leg.

In the near term, two scenarios are in focus. First, XRP may revisit the $2.40 zone to test local liquidity, remaining within the broader consolidation range. Second, and more bullish, is a move toward $3—a target that would require sustained volume and aggressive buying through two key supply zones.

A retest of the recently formed daily demand zone could also provide another entry opportunity. This level, created during Sunday’s rebound, may act as a springboard if the price dips back with imbalance.

XRP Lawsuit Update: Legal Uncertainty Still Looms

Despite the severe price action, XRP lawsuit news continues to linger in the background. The Ripple SEC lawsuit remains a wild card. Important breakthroughs in the XRP SEC lawsuits have the potential to influence sentiment and direction of price significantly. Investors continue to closely monitor news in the SEC Ripple case, particularly as Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse doubles down on the firm’s pursuit of regulatory clarity.

Former SEC Director Marc Fagel suggests a ruling in the Ripple vs SEC case may come sooner than expected, based on his insider experience. Source: XRP Update via X

Ripple’s growing collaborations with institutions such as Ripple Bank of America have helped tell the narrative that XRP is not just a speculative instrument—it plays a role in cross-border payments and institutional finance. The Ripple exchange and Ripple ledger network keep growing, reinforcing the long-term value proposition of XRP.

Final Thoughts

As XRP rises back into place over $2, the combination of calming geopolitics, robust derivatives support, and bullish technical patterns brings a positive situation for the token. However, with resistance present and legal dangers looming, bears need to be cautious while looking out for confirmation signals. A break above $2.50 might set the stage for a long-awaited push to $3, making this a critical juncture for XRP in the developing Ripple crypto narrative.