XRP Price Prediction: Can Bulls Reclaim $1.46?

• XRP faces persistent downside as lower highs confirm ongoing bearish momentum.
• Derivatives open interest cools sharply, signaling reduced short-term systemic risk.
• Exchange outflows persist, highlighting continued distribution despite lighter recent pressure.

XRP remains under pressure as price action, derivatives data, and exchange flows point to cautious market sentiment. On the 4-hour chart, XRP/USD trades within a broader bearish structure, and buyers have yet to regain control. 

Momentum indicators show limited strength, while key resistance levels continue to cap recovery attempts. As a result, traders now watch critical support zones to assess whether another leg lower may unfold in the near term.

Price Structure Signals Ongoing Weakness

XRP continues to print lower highs after rejecting near the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $1.618. Consequently, the broader downtrend remains intact on the 4-hour timeframe. Price trades below the mid-range Fibonacci levels and the Keltner Channel midline. This alignment signals weak upside momentum.

Currently, the $1.32–$1.33 area acts as immediate support. A sustained move below the $1.3210–$1.3250 range could trigger further downside. Hence, traders monitor the psychological $1.30 level closely. 

If sellers push below that threshold, price may test $1.25 next. Moreover, the $1.12 region, which aligns with the 0 Fibonacci base, stands as a deeper support target.

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On the upside, resistance remains firm between $1.35 and $1.37. This zone overlaps with the channel mid-band and a prior breakdown structure. Additionally, a recovery above $1.4050 would weaken short-term bearish pressure. A decisive move toward $1.46 would shift sentiment more meaningfully.

Derivatives Positioning Cools After Q4 Surge

Open interest data shows a sharp rise during late Q4, followed by steady deleveraging. Significantly, open interest surged above $10 billion during the major breakout phase. That expansion reflected heavy speculative positioning and elevated leverage.

However, as volatility eased, traders reduced exposure. Open interest gradually declined into early 2026. Currently, it stands near $2.29 billion. This level sits far below the previous peak. Consequently, the derivatives market now appears less overheated. Lighter positioning suggests reduced systemic risk in the short term.

Exchange Flows Reflect Distribution Trend

Spot flow data reveals persistent exchange outflows since late October. Red outflow bars often exceeded $50 million, with several spikes nearing $150 million. This pattern signals consistent distribution pressure.

Brief inflow bursts appeared in mid-July, late August, and early December. However, those episodes failed to reverse the broader trend. Additionally, a sharp late-November outflow coincided with renewed price weakness. That alignment reinforced bearish momentum.

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Recent February data shows smaller net movements. The latest reading indicates a modest $4.88 million net outflow. Consequently, sellers remain active, though pressure has eased compared to prior heavy distribution phases.

Technical Outlook for XRP Price

Key levels remain clearly defined as XRP trades within a broader corrective structure on the 4-hour chart. Price continues to hold near the $1.32–$1.33 support band, which now acts as the immediate defensive zone for buyers.

Upside levels: $1.35 and $1.37 serve as initial resistance barriers. A sustained move above $1.4050 would ease short-term bearish pressure. If momentum strengthens, price could extend toward $1.46, which stands as the key resistance cluster for medium-term recovery.

Downside levels: Immediate support sits at $1.3210–$1.3250. A breakdown below this area may expose the psychological $1.30 level. Further weakness could open room toward $1.25. A deeper correction would target the swing base near $1.12, aligned with the 0 Fibonacci zone.

The broader technical structure shows XRP trading below mid-range Fibonacci levels and under the Keltner Channel midline. Moreover, DMI reflects weakening trend strength, with ADX moderating. However, +DI remains below –DI, confirming sellers still control direction.

Will XRP Move Higher?

XRP’s near-term trajectory depends on whether buyers can defend $1.32 and reclaim the $1.40–$1.46 region. Consequently, a decisive breakout above $1.4050 would shift short-term sentiment and attract renewed upside participation. Additionally, improving spot inflows and rising open interest would strengthen bullish conviction.

However, failure to hold $1.32 risks accelerating downside pressure toward $1.25 and possibly $1.12. Current derivatives data shows lighter leverage compared to late 2025 extremes, which may reduce volatility spikes. For now, XRP remains in a pivotal range where confirmation above resistance or breakdown below support will determine the next directional move.

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