XRP Lawyer Sees Increased Odds of Coinbase Lawsuit Dismissal After Recent SEC Court Loss

A prominent crypto industry lawyer believes the chances have improved that Coinbase will succeed in getting the SEC’s lawsuit against it dismissed.

Speaking on trader Scott Melker’s show Wednesday, attorney John E. Deaton said he now sees a 35% probability of the SEC’s complaint being dismissed, up from his previous estimate of 20–25%.

Deaton cited a new legal decision against the SEC as the reason for his increased confidence in Coinbase’s chances. In that case, a federal judge rejected the SEC’s arguments that crypto asset securities were subject to its jurisdiction when sold on exchanges.

Deaton sees a 35% chance of Coinbase lawsuit being dismissed

“Normally, I would say there’s no chance or a 1 percent chance for success with a [Motion to Dismiss],” Deaton remarked. “I have to read this decision, but my 20-25% may have just jumped to 35% with this decision.”

Coinbase has been embroiled in a legal battle with the SEC recently. The recent court loss for the SEC against Ripple and Grayscale bolsters Ripple’s core jurisdictional argument. Deaton sees parallels between the two cases and believes Coinbase can assert a similar defense successfully.

While risks remain, Deaton’s increased confidence provides a glimmer of optimism for Coinbase. A case surviving a motion to dismiss would be a major coup, signaling judicial skepticism of the SEC’s legal theory against cryptocurrencies more broadly.

With crypto innovation increasingly constrained by the US’s regulatory uncertainty, a Coinbase lawsuit victory could have ripple effects across the entire blockchain industry.