XRP ETF odds surge to 80% after SEC-Ripple legal settlement

Key Takeaways

Analysts are split on whether BlackRock will file for a spot XRP ETF. But the latest regulatory update could be a positive catalyst for it to make the move, per Nate Geraci. 

BlackRock may apply for a spot Ripple[XRP] ETF after the U.S SEC and Ripple Labs ended their appeals. This was a bold projection by Nate Geraci of ETF Institute, adding that, 

“Yes, I think BlackRock was waiting to see this before filing for iShares XRP ETF…”

He said that it would make ‘zero sense’ for the firm not to explore beyond Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH].

If it sticks to only BTC and ETH, then it would mean that only the two assets have value, Geraci wrote. 

XRP ETF approval odds jump to 80%

As of press time, the asset manager had not applied for both XRP and Solana [SOL] ETFs. This made it the only potential issuer with BTC and ETH ETF offerings that was yet to make that move. 

Last year, Samara Cohen, CIO at BlackRock, noted that institutional investors were only focused on BTC and ETH. Hence, at that time, she added that they may not apply for other crypto ETFs in the near term. 

However, Geraci believes that BlackRock could file for SOL and XRP ETFs before the October approval deadline. 

For his part, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas opined that the firm may just stick to the two top crypto assets, citing ‘diminished returns’ beyond ETH. 

Source: X

Meanwhile, the approval odds for spot XRP ETF surged to nearly 80% after the SEC and Ripple Labs opted to end their appeals. 

Source: Polymarket

Interestingly, the chances had dropped to 66% on the 7th of August. This followed revelations of alleged blockage of crypto ETFs by Democrat SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw. 

But Balchunas noted that the commissioner was ‘outnumbered’ and could not prevent the products from going live, maintaining 95% of approval. 

“She’s outnumbered = we haven’t changed our odds, still at 95%.”

On the market front, over $6 billion XRP has been offloaded in the past few days, flipping whale demand to negative. 

While this was a threat to the $3 support, the latest update on the dismissal of the SEC and Ripple Labs appeals triggered an 11% upswing to $3.3.  

However, Options traders were still heavily hedging against further downside risks despite the relief rally.

Per Laevitas’ data, there was a premium for short-dated put options (bearish bets).

Also, the 25 Delta Skew turned negative and dropped across the 1-day, 1-week, and 3-month tenors, illustrating weakening sentiment.

Source: Laevitas

Notably, traders bought over 1.8 billion XRP at each of the $2.70–$2.80 and $2.40–$2.50 zones, reinforcing these levels as key support areas. 

These zones now serve as potential floors in the event of a short-term pullback. 

Source: Glassnode