XRP ETF Odds Drop to 62%, But Top Analyst Still at 95%

XRP ETF approval odds dropped sharply after SEC Commissioner Crenshaw voiced opposition
Despite SEC pushback, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas still sees 95% chance of approval
Global momentum builds as Japan’s SBI files for Bitcoin-XRP ETF amid SEC delays

Traders on the prediction market Polymarket have slashed their odds for an XRP ETF approval, dropping the chances from 86% to just 62% in these last two days.

This sudden drop in confidence was triggered by the disclosure that SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw plans to vote against the approval.

Why the Market Is Nervous (But Balchunas Isn’t)

However, top Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says he isn’t fazed, holding his personal odds for approval steady at a confident 95%. While Crenshaw’s vote is seen as part of her broader stance against crypto ETFs, the outlook for XRP ETFs remains largely unchanged.

Interesting, trades reporting how Polymarket odds of XRP ETF approval went down to 62% after the votes were disclosed showing Crenshaw voting no, but a) she’s gonna vote no on EVERYTHING and b) it’s meaningless, she’s outnumbered = we haven’t changed our odds, still at 95%. https://t.co/TamMn8DHVh pic.twitter.com/Ip9G748HrU
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 7, 2025

But who would file? Which Wall Street giant might file for an XRP ETF. Here’s CoinEdition’s analysis on what’s next from BlackRock.

Crenshaw’s Continued Opposition to Crypto ETFs

Crenshaw’s opposition is hardly a surprise to close market watchers. She has regularly voted against proposals involving crypto assets, including the recent votes on various exchange-traded products (ETPs).

On July 29, the SEC approved 13 votes related to crypto products, including Bitwise’s Bitcoin and Ethereum funds, with a 3-1 margin.

Although her objections are clear, they are unlikely to derail the broader momentum toward crypto ETF approvals. Her views reflect a cautious approach, especially concerning XRP, and emphasize the need for full votes on such critical issues rather than relying on delegated authority.

Despite Crenshaw’s opposition, the SEC’s trend toward approving in-kind redemption mechanisms for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs signals a growing acceptance of crypto ETPs.

Meanwhile, Global Demand for XRP ETFs Is Growing

While the debate continues in the U.S., the global appetite for an XRP ETF is clearly growing. In Japan, Ripple partner SBI Holdings has already filed for an ETF that includes both Bitcoin and XRP.

It’s already happening elsewhere. While the US debates, an XRP ETF has been filed in Japan. Here’s the full story on SBI’s move.

This highlights the increasing demand for crypto-based investment vehicles in international markets. This global interest, combined with Ripple meeting the SEC’s updated listing criteria for crypto assets, adds to the optimism that an approval in the U.S. could be closer than many think.

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Source: https://coinedition.com/xrp-etf-approval-odds-bloomberg-analyst-confident-sec-stance/