XRP ETF Launch Sets New XRP Price Target $10.70 as Base

• Analyst Zach Rector is modeling XRP’s long-term value, using Bitcoin’s $1.76 trillion market cap jump post-ETF as a benchmark.
• Rector’s “conservative base case” sees a $500B market cap increase (a $10.70 price), with a “bull case” targeting $1T (a $19-$20 price).
• This analysis comes as Canary Capital’s spot XRP ETF ($XRPC) prepares to launch on Nasdaq, though issuers are only required to “seed” the funds, not “stockpile” XRP pre-launch.

As the first U.S. spot XRP ETF prepares to go live on Nasdaq, attention is turning to what this could mean for XRP’s long-term value.

According to analyst Zach Rector, the ETF era could be a game-changer, one that mirrors Bitcoin’s explosive growth following its own ETF debut earlier this year.

Related: XRP ETF Launch From Canary to Trigger Billions In Demand As Exchange Supply Stays Thin

Benchmarking Bitcoin: The $1.76 Trillion Precedent

Rector pointed out that Bitcoin’s market capitalization jumped by $1.76 trillion after its spot ETFs began trading.

Using that as a benchmark, he outlined several potential outcomes for XRP once institutional inflows begin.

Rector’s XRP Model: A $10.70 Base Case, $20 Bull Target

In what he calls a “conservative base case,” Rector estimates that XRP’s market cap could increase by $500 billion by 2027, which would place its price around $10.70 per token.

However, under a bullish scenario, if XRP attracts inflows closer to $10 billion and experiences a 100x market multiplier, the market cap could grow by $1 trillion, sending XRP toward the $19–$20 range.

He explained that the speed and size of ETF inflows will decide how quickly these targets are reached. The more rapid the adoption by institutions and retail investors, the faster XRP could climb toward those upper price levels.

What to Expect for XRP Price on Launch Day

Why ‘Seed Capital’ Is Not ‘Stockpiling’

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg expressed excitement, calling it “a proud moment made possible through the efforts of SEC leaders who support free markets.”

The XRP ETF will debut as a single-token product, allowing U.S. investors to gain direct exposure to XRP through regulated financial channels.

However, it’s important to note that issuers are only required to purchase a small amount of XRP as “seed capital.”  They cannot stockpile XRP in advance of the launch — meaning that the full market impact will depend on post-launch demand and inflows.

XRP Price Tests $2.50 for Breakout After XRPC Spot ETF Launch

In the last 24 hours, XRP price has gained more than 5% to trade above the crucial $2.50 mark. One analyst said that XRP must close a daily candle above the yellow zone and then break past $3.10.

If that happens, the price could quickly reach its all-time high and move into price discovery.

Related: Canary’s XRP Spot ETF Becomes Effective After Nasdaq Certification