XRP ETF Approval Odds Near 100%—Could This Be the Catalyst for a $5 Price Explosion?

• According to Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the XRP spot ETF currently has a 95% chance of being approved by the SEC.
• Asset managers like Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, and ProShares have already filed applications for XRP ETFs.

Imagine if the U.S. didn’t have a president like Donald Trump who supports cryptocurrency, progress in the space would likely be moving much slower. Take Ripple (XRP), for example. It’s faced its fair share of legal battles and delays in getting investment products tied to it approved.

But things are starting to look up. According to Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, there’s now a 95% chance that a Ripple spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) will get the green light from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

XRP supporters are feeling optimistic, pointing to growing interest from institutions and a more favorable regulatory climate as key reasons why an XRP ETF might finally get approved. On the legal side, things have been moving, though not without a few bumps.

Recently, both the SEC and Ripple Labs filed a joint request in Manhattan federal court asking to undo a previous ruling that classified Ripple’s primary XRP sales as securities violations.

As noted in our earlier post, they also proposed lowering the $125 million fine, suggesting that $50 million go to the SEC and the remaining $75 million be returned to Ripple. However, Judge Analisa Torres denied the motion, saying they hadn’t shown the “exceptional circumstances” needed to overturn the ruling.

While the SEC hasn’t officially said whether it will continue pursuing its own appeal, Ripple has already agreed to drop its cross-appeal. Adding to the speculation, a closed-door SEC meeting scheduled for July 3 has sparked hopes that the case could finally be coming to an end.

XRP’s Path to a Breakout

Although XRP gained legal clarity back in 2023, many institutions have remained cautious about jumping in. There’s speculation that even giants like BlackRock may be waiting for the Ripple-SEC case to fully wrap up before making a move, possibly with their own XRP ETF filing.

In the meantime, several companies have already stepped forward. Bitwise Asset Management kicked things off with a filing in October 2024, followed by Canary Capital, 21Shares, WisdomTree, ProShares, and CoinShares, all showing strong institutional interest. And it’s not just ETF issuers getting involved.

We featured in our recent coverage that XRP has entered what many are calling its “institutional era,” with over $1 billion in treasury allocations from companies including the Chinese AI firm Webus, VivoPower’s $121 million commitment, and Florida-based pharmaceutical distributor Wellgistics. This could potentially fuel a run past $5 and toward the $10 mark if conditions align.

Adding to the bullish case, Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), which includes XRP alongside Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL), has received SEC approval to convert into a spot ETF. While XRP doesn’t yet have a dedicated ETF approval, this indirect inclusion shows progress.

Still, short-term price action remains volatile. In the past 24 hours, XRP has dropped 0.71%, trading at $2.18, and it’s up 1.4% over the last 30 days and up by 348% in the past year. If the current selling pressure continues, there’s a chance XRP could dip below the $2.13 support, with a possible slide to $5 on the horizon.