XPL Technical Analysis Feb 23

XPL, with RSI at 37.88 approaching the oversold region, MACD histogram giving positive momentum signal; however, bearish short-term trend continues below EMA20 and volume is seeking confirmation for the decline.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

XPL current price at 0.08 USD level and experienced a sharp 10.58% drop in the last 24 hours. Daily range squeezed between 0.08-0.09 USD, volume remained at medium level with 76.04 million USD. Overall trend direction confirmed downward, Supertrend indicator giving bearish signal and resistance level positioned at 0.12 USD. In terms of momentum, RSI value of 37.88 in neutral zone but approaching oversold (below 30), increasing the probability of short-term base formation. Despite positive histogram in MACD, price remaining below EMA20 (0.10 USD) shows momentum has not yet reversed the trend. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, 8 strong levels detected in 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/3 resistance in 1D, 1 support/2 resistance in 3D, 2 support/1 resistance in 1W. This confluence emphasizes squeeze between strong support at 0.0736 USD (73/100 score) and resistance at 0.1977 USD (63/100 score). Volume confirmation weak; although volume increased during decline, no sufficient accumulation observed for upside, creating question marks on momentum sustainability.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

RSI(14) currently at 37.88 level and positioned in neutral zone (30-70), but approaching oversold boundary (below 30) with recent decline. Regular bearish divergence observed on daily chart: price making new lows while RSI forming higher lows, signaling weakening selling momentum. On weekly timeframe, hidden bullish divergence signal starting to form; RSI holding its base while price declines, warning of potential momentum reversal. However, no divergence on 3-day chart, downward trend dominant. These mixed signals show RSI weakening sell signal and turning into buy opportunity, especially if 30 level breaks, oversold bounce expected.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

RSI at 37.88 one step away from oversold region (below 30), this level historically marked the end of 15-20% pullbacks in XPL. In previous oversold exits (e.g., January 2026), RSI jump from 28 to 55 brought 25% rally. Current position carries short-term buy signal potential but volume confirmation required. Overbought (above 70) distant, risky without resistance breaks.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD status reported as bullish, histogram positive and expanding; this shows momentum slowing the downward trend. Signal line crossover not yet occurred but MACD line holding above zero line, histogram bars growing in last 3 days (from 0.0012 to 0.0021). This dynamic indicates hidden bullish momentum accumulation within bearish trend. On daily chart, MACD histogram peaked then contracted and now expanding again, closing above 0.085 USD critical for crossover. Weekly MACD has bearish crossover but histogram contraction (narrowing) shows weakness. Overall, MACD providing short-term recovery signal in confluence with RSI, but zero line above sustainability required for trend change.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

Price trading below EMA20 (0.10 USD), confirming short-term bearish trend. Narrowing between EMA10 and EMA20 ribbon shows momentum loss; if price cannot break EMA10 (0.092 USD), selling pressure increases. In last 24 hours, test toward EMA50 (0.095 USD), downward break targets 0.0736 support.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

EMA50 (0.095 USD) and EMA200 (0.112 USD) resisting as medium-term supports, ribbon structure downward sloping and expanding, showing strong downtrend. If price falls below EMA200, long-term bearish ribbon begins. In trend strength measurement, EMA ribbon dynamics confirm weak momentum, recovery requires close above EMA20 and ribbon narrowing.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at 65,785 USD with 3.32% drop in downtrend, Supertrend bearish. XPL shows high correlation with BTC (0.85%); if BTC supports at 64,183-62,591 USD break, sharp drop below 0.0736 expected in XPL. If BTC resistances above 65,920 USD broken, altcoin rally triggered, opening 0.0905-0.0965 levels for XPL. BTC dominance increase pressuring altcoins, XPL momentum will remain tied to BTC trend; if BTC falls below 60,000, XPL bearish target 0.0138 (22 score) comes into play.

Momentum Result and Expectations

In momentum confluence, RSI oversold approach and MACD positive histogram giving bullish signal but EMA bearish structure and volume deficiency protecting downtrend. Short-term: if 0.0736 support holds, test of 0.0905-0.0965 resistance, breakout to 0.1421 bullish target (25 score). Bearish scenario: support break leads to 0.0138. Volume increase and BTC recovery required. For detailed spot analysis, check XPL Spot Analysis, for futures XPL Futures Analysis. Momentum oscillators (RSI+MACD) giving reversal signal but trend strength weak, be cautious.