XLM Technical Analysis Feb 2

XLM is trading in a tight range around $0.18, with RSI at 31 signaling oversold while MACD maintains bearish structure; this creates a critical juncture for both bullish rebound and downside continuation.

Current Market Situation

XLM stabilized at $0.18 after rising 1.53% in the last 24 hours, but the overall trend continues downward. The price range is narrowing between $0.17-$0.18, with volume at $125.57M at moderate levels. Technical indicators show RSI at 30.97 in oversold territory, which could signal a potential rebound; however, MACD confirms bearish momentum with negative histogram. Price continues to stay below EMA20 ($0.20) and Supertrend gives bearish signal, with strong resistance at $0.21. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 12 strong levels were detected across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 3D, 1 support/4 resistances on 1W weighted. Critical supports at $0.1655 (strength score 74/100) and $0.1771 (64/100), resistance at $0.1852 (66/100). This structure indicates potential for breakout in either direction; traders should monitor volume increases and candle closes.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario, a clear breakout above $0.1852 resistance and daily close above it is required first. The oversold RSI level (30.97), if supported by positive divergence, could lead to momentum shift; MACD histogram rising toward the zero line with +20% volume increase should be seen. Once EMA20 ($0.20) is surpassed and Supertrend turns green, short-term uptrend is confirmed. Breaking 3D and 1W resistances in MTF (e.g., $0.21) triggers broader rally. Invalidation for this scenario is loss of $0.1771 support; close below it invalidates the entire bullish structure. Traders should watch for increasing buy volume at $0.1852 and bullish engulfing candles – these provide breakout confirmation.

Target Levels

First target $0.20 (EMA20), then $0.21 Supertrend resistance and psychological $0.22. On strong breakout, next stop $0.2479 (score 10/100, fib extension level). Risk/reward ratio from current levels is around 1:3; however, BTC correlation must be positive. For long-term targets, 1W timeframe resistances must be surpassed, potentially extending to $0.25 region.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario triggers with hourly/daily close below $0.1771 support; if broken, panic selling accelerates. As MACD bearish histogram expands, RSI zeros out below 30 and negative divergence forms, momentum increases. Selling pressure in volume (+15% increase) and bearish candle patterns (e.g., shooting star at $0.18) heighten risk. Supertrend remains bearish and distance from EMA20 widens, making tests of 3D/1W supports in MTF (e.g., $0.1655) likely. Invalidation for this scenario is breakout of $0.1852 resistance; close above it invalidates the bearish thesis. Overall market BTC downtrend and low volume strengthen this risk – traders should track volume spike at $0.1771 and red candle closes.

Protection Levels

First protection $0.1771, on breakout $0.1655 (strong support, score 74/100) is critical. Below it, psychological $0.15 region, ultimate target $0.0941 (score 22/100, fib retracement). Risk/reward here around 1:2.5; stop-losses should be placed below $0.1771. 1W timeframe supports can be monitored to avoid deep drops.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision point is $0.1771-$0.1852 range; volume >$150M and clear candle closes are decisive. For bullish, RSI >40 and MACD zero crossover; for bearish, RSI <25 and new lows should be monitored. As volatility increases (ATR >5%), position sizing should be adjusted. Additional data can be obtained from XLM Spot Analysis and XLM Futures Analysis pages.

Bitcoin Correlation

XLM shows high correlation with BTC (0.85+); BTC in downtrend at $78,290 with Supertrend bearish signal – creating caution for altcoins. If BTC fails to hold $77,445 support, XLM $0.1771 breakdown accelerates; conversely, if $79,396 resistance is surpassed, XLM bullish scenario strengthens. BTC supports ($74,604, $63,235) align with XLM $0.1655/$0.0941, while resistances ($83,548) support XLM $0.2479 rally. If BTC dominance rises, altcoin pressure increases; traders should watch below BTC $77k.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

Both scenarios valid; consolidation in $0.18 range awaits breakout. Watchlist: Volume changes, RSI/MACD divergences, $0.1771/$0.1852 closes, and BTC $77,445 movement. Traders should act with their own risk management, follow news flow (none currently). Visit spot and futures pages for daily updates.