WLD Technical Analysis Jan 23

WLD’s RSI has declined to the 35.82 level, approaching the oversold region, but the negative expansion of the MACD histogram reinforces momentum weakness in the downtrend – short-term recovery signal is limited.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

WLD is consolidating in a narrow daily range (0.47-0.48) at the 0.47 dollar level, maintaining downtrend pressure with a 24-hour 0.53% decline. The 65 million dollar volume confirms weakness in momentum; no strong accumulation or distribution signals. RSI 14-period at 35.82 is approaching the oversold threshold (30), but MACD’s bearish configuration and price remaining below EMA20 (0.53 dollars) indicate trend strength favors sellers. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, highlighting the 0.58 dollar resistance. Multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence detects 9 strong levels in 1D/3D/1W: 1 support/3 resistances on daily, 3 resistances on 3-day, 1 support/3 resistances on weekly – overall outlook resistance-heavy. Momentum oscillators suggest short-term bottom hunting, but EMA ribbon compression is insufficient for trend reversal.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

RSI 14 has declined to 35.82 recently, moving toward the oversold region (below 30), bringing short-term momentum weakness and potential reaction buying into focus. However, regular bearish divergence is observed: While price makes lower lows at recent bottoms (0.47), there is no slightly higher low in RSI (around 35); on the contrary, compared to previous RSI peaks, regular bearish divergence dominates – price makes higher highs while RSI makes lower highs, confirming continuation of seller momentum. In terms of hidden divergence, the search for bullish hidden divergence within the downtrend falls flat; RSI decline follows price action. This configuration carries the risk of RSI dipping below 30 before generating a buy signal, especially in low-volume consolidation.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

RSI at 35.82 is distancing from the neutral zone (50) and knocking on the oversold door; historically in WLD, levels below 30 have triggered 20-30% reaction rallies, but in the current downtrend, this level serves as an early warning. The 50 level stands as strong resistance; without surpassing it, momentum recovery remains limited. When seeking confluence with RSI momentum oscillator (RSI Stoch), %K line near 20 is oversold, but %D line confirms the decline – overall signal is selling pressure.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD is in bearish mode; signal line below MACD line, histogram negative and expanding – this shows momentum acceleration favoring sellers. Growth in histogram bars in recent candles (deepening in negative values) confirms downtrend strength; expansion is observed instead of contraction (compression), meaning no weakening signal. In the previous crossover (bearish), price broke down from 0.53; now the histogram deepening around -0.015 signals a test of 0.4510 support. In terms of divergence, regular bearish divergence is also present in MACD: While price is at lows, MACD peaks are lower, emphasizing the sustainability of selling momentum. Waiting for a bullish crossover until the histogram approaches the zero line (currently far away) is risky; without volume confirmation, false signals increase.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

Price continues to stay below EMA20 (0.53 dollars), maintaining short-term bearish bias; compression between EMA10 and EMA20 ribbon reflects momentum loss. No pullback toward EMA50 (around 0.55), indicating trend strength is not weak. Short-term EMA crossovers are negative: EMA10 has crossed below EMA20, sell signal active.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

Medium-term EMA50 and EMA100 (0.58-0.62 band) stand as strong resistances, price access to here is limited. Long-term EMA200 (around 0.70) is distant support, but in MTF, weekly EMAs support the downtrend. Ribbon dynamics measure trend strength with EMAs fanning downward: Strong downtrend signal, ribbon expansion (spread) required for recovery. 0.4510 support overlaps with EMA21 daily average, this is a critical hold level.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at 89,444 dollars with 0.16% decline continues its downtrend, Supertrend bearish – caution signal for altcoins. WLD shows high correlation with BTC (0.85+); if BTC breaks 88,438 support, WLD accelerates to 0.4510; if 90,309 resistance is surpassed, WLD rally to 0.5098-0.58 possible. BTC dominance increase crushes alt momentum; current BTC key supports (88k-84k) are triggers for WLD bearish targets (0.2374).

Momentum Outcome and Expectations

Momentum oscillators (RSI 35.82 oversold approach, MACD negative histogram expansion, price below EMA 20) confirm downtrend; volume at 65M neutral, no strong confirmation. Short term: 0.4510 support test, on break 0.2374 bearish target; on hold, reaction to 0.4803-0.5098 resistances. Bullish scenario: RSI above 50 + MACD contraction to 0.7699, but BTC downtrend is an obstacle. Oscillator confluence favors selling, wait for 30 RSI for bottom hunters. Detailed data available for WLD Spot Analysis and WLD Futures Analysis. Overall outlook: Momentum weak, downtrend dominant – patience is key.