Will Post.Tech Launch Trigger Arbitrum (ARB) Price Rally?

Arbitrum (ARB) price performed dismally this month, dropping 14% from $0.95 to $0.82, but the recent Post.Tech launch could potentially buck the trend. On-chain analysis explores how investor interest in the SocialFi trend could propel Arbitrum price. 

On September 13, Arbitrum announced Post.Tech, as one of the notable newly-launched projects in the ARB ecosystem. Recent on-chain data shows that Post. Tech has hit the ground running, drawing significant traction into the Arbitrum network in the process. Will this trigger an Arbitrum price rally in the coming days? 

What Is Post.Tech? 

Post.Tech is a fork of the Friend.Tech SocialFi protocol hosted on the Arbitrum network. Similar to Friend.Tech, Post.Tech is a Web3 social network on Arbitrum that allows users to monetize their social media profiles and earn income from digital interactions. 

SocialFi has emerged as one of the dominant themes attracting cryptocurrency investors’ attention in H2 2023. From Telegram Bot tokens to Friend.Tech, the SocialFi sector market capitalization has now crossed $1 billion. 

Post.Tech could be the next SocialFi project to rise to prominence. The platform’s Total Value Locked skyrocketed from $38,180 to about $1 million on Sept 21, according to DeFiLamma. This represents an astonishing 24,300% TVL growth within just 24 hours. 

Total Value Locked (TVL) measures the value of assets or cryptocurrency tokens currently deposited within a specific DeFi protocol. The 24,300% TVL growth observed above could be an early indication that the recent explosion in social media traffic could potentially impact Post.Tech overall usage and adoption. 

SocialFi is Drawing Significant Traction to the Arbitrum network

Following the Post.Tech launch announcement on September 13, Arbitrum has witnessed a considerable spike in new wallet addresses. Arbitrum Network Growth has conspicuously hit new monthly peaks this week as Post.Tech began to gain traction.  

As depicted below, Arbitrum recorded 3,589 and 3,837 new wallet addresses on September 19 and 20, respectively. Notably, the last time Arbitrum Network Growth reached these heights was over a month ago, on August 17.

By tracking new wallet addresses created daily, Network Growth estimates the number of users that join a blockchain network. Typically, this uptick in Arbitrum user acquisition means that the underlying ARB token is attracting fresh demand. 

Unsurprisingly, Arbitrum’s price has already gained 4% since the network growth began to rise around September 13. Hence, if the Post.Tech adoption intensifies, and it could potentially propel ARB price into a bull rally in the coming weeks. 

ARB Price Prediction: The Bulls Could Reclaim $1

From an on-chain perspective, if sustained, this persistent increase in Network Growth could propel Arbitrum price toward reclaiming $1. 

The Global In/Out of Money Around Price (GIOM) data, which depicts the purchase price distribution of current Arbitrum holders, also validates this bullish thesis.

It shows that if Arbitrum scales the initial resistance at $0.86, the bulls could potentially ride the Post.Tech wave toward $1.20. 

As shown below, the 59,170 addresses bought 1.26 billion ETH at the average price of $1.12 is the major obstacle that could prevent the bulls from reclaiming $1.20. 

But if the Post.Tech adoption heats up as predicted; the bull rally could eventually hit $1.20.

Conversely, the bears could seize control if the ARB price drops below $0.70. However, as shown below, 14,740 addresses had bought 3.7 billion Arbitrum tokens at the minimum price of $0.79. Being the most influential cluster of ARB holders, they will likely stave off the bearish downswing. 

But if the ARB loses that vital support level, the price could drop below $0.70.