Will Aptos price crash as $60.5M token unlock looms?

Aptos price has surged 27% over the past week amid ecosystem partnerships that uplifted investor sentiment. However, with over $60 million in token unlocks looming, does the token risk a reversal?

According to data from crypto.news Aptos (APT) has dropped 3.5% over the past day to $5.34 after a nearly 43% rally from $3.91 on Sep. 26 to $5.57 on Oct. 5.

The drop comes as traders turned cautious ahead of an impending token unlock. According to data from Tokenomist, the event scheduled for Oct. 11 will release over 11.31 million APT tokens, worth roughly $60.5 million, into circulation. The unlocked figure represents about 2.15% of the circulating supply.

For the uninitiated, large-scale token unlocks, as in the Aptos case, often increase selling pressure on the token with investors anticipating potential sell-offs in the open market. Moreover, if the project cannot attract enough new demand to offset the increased supply after the unlock, it can heighten market concerns and trigger further downside risk.

CoinGlass data shows that open interest in the Aptos futures market has dropped 1.45% over the past 24 hours, while the weighted funding rate has turned deeply negative, a sign that short traders are paying longs to keep their positions open. These metrics reflect that sentiment is starting to turn bearish among traders ahead of the upcoming token unlock.

Despite this, Aptos could abate much of the selling pressure if it manages to drive demand for its token through fresh project developments or ecosystem growth.

As such, just a couple of days ago, Bitwise filed an application for an APT ETF. As anticipation surrounding the potential approval grows, it could help counteract some of the selling pressure from the upcoming unlock. Increased visibility and legitimacy through an ETF could also drive fresh inflows into the Aptos ecosystem, supporting price stability in the short term.

Recent reports show that September was a strong month for the Aptos ecosystem, with monthly app revenue reaching an all-time high of $4.43 million. If such bullish figures carry into October, which historically tends to be a bullish period for major cryptocurrencies, Aptos could likely offset much of the anticipated selling pressure from the upcoming token unlock.

Another potential factor that could support Aptos is the growth of stablecoin liquidity on the network. Notably, the total stablecoin market cap on Aptos has surged by nearly 17% over the past seven days, signaling a renewed influx of capital into the ecosystem.

This growth reflects deeper network engagement rather than passive asset parking. Users appear to be increasingly utilizing Aptos-based lending protocols, liquidity pools, and decentralized exchanges, highlighting a gradual strengthening of the ecosystem’s fundamental activity.

On the daily chart, Aptos price action shows that it has confirmed a breakout from a descending triangle pattern, a technical signal often associated with a reversal from a bearish to a bullish trend.

The token is also trading above all major simple moving averages, indicating that bullish momentum remains intact and that buyers continue to hold control over the market.

On top of that, the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, with both trending upward and green histogram bars expanding, another indicator confirming the growing bullish sentiment among traders.

Taken together, these technical signals suggest that, as of press time, the key support level for APT lies at $4.84 (its 200-day SMA), while the immediate resistance level stands at $5.67, corresponding to its recent high on Oct. 5.