As XRP futures markets trend short-heavy, options traders keep betting big on a bounce. Whale moves and Ripple lawsuit turns fuel this tug-of-war.
If you’re watching XRP markets this week, you’re witnessing a rare split in trader psychology: while futures traders are doubling down on bearish bets, options traders remain stubbornly optimistic. This divergence has left analysts and investors scrambling to make sense of conflicting signals, as whale wallets and legal milestones add even more intrigue to the story.
Futures: The Bears Take Control
The futures market has turned decisively negative.
CryptoQuant statistics show that XRP’s taker buy/sell level has been below 1 for the past two weeks, at 0.92 — a very strong sign that sellers rule. The long/short level, now 0.82, also confirms most traders expect further downside. XRP has shed nearly 10% in the past week and is trading perilously near the critical $2 support, with analysts warning that a fall below here can trigger a cascading liquidity effect.
The mood darkened further with open interest in XRP futures declining to $3.2 billion, nearly 10% less than the recent peaks of the past month. Historically, falling open interest reflects waning interest and can be a precursor to sharp price falls if selling pressure rises.
“XRP’s futures market is flashing red—shorts are in control and support is looking shaky,” tweeted @CryptoQuant.
Options: Bulls Refuse to Back Down
At the same time, options traders are not backing down. Open interest on Deribit is rising, with most bets made on high-strike calls between $2.60 and $3.00+—a sign of persistence bullishness. The most traded is the call at $4, with over $5 million notional OI open interest, and the calls at $3 and $3.10 each have over $5 million OI. Nearly all of this trading is on Deribit, which has over 95% of XRP options volume.
Why the optimism? For some, it’s the larger view: holding out for a U.S. XRP ETF, Ripple’s growing role in cross-border payments, and hopes that the years-long SEC lawsuit is finally on the cusp of a resolution. Others are looking at the recent pullback as a buying opportunity, betting on a legal victory or ETF approval to rocket XRP into the stratosphere.
“Options traders are betting on an XRP rebound — calls at $3 and $4 are hot. Are the bears missing something?” shared @DeribitInsights.
Whale Wallets and Liquidity Maps
Under the hood, whale wallets are making waves. Whale Alert followed 40 million XRP ($87 million) moving between big wallets on June 1, as institutions gear up for possible breakdown or breakout. Liquidity maps show frenetic action around the $2.00 and $2.30 levels — key zones that will drive huge movements if they break.
“Massive XRP transfers as whales reposition — are they prepping for a reversal or more pain?” asked @WhaleAlert.
Legal Drama: Ripple’s Lawsuit Hangs in the Balance
No analysis of XRP would be complete without the Ripple-SEC saga. The new twist: Judge Torres spurned a proposed settlement, prolonging uncertainty and keeping pressure on the price. But from legal experts, the fundamentals haven’t shifted—XRP isn’t a security, and a final resolution may arrive as soon as this summer. Until then, the legal overhang continues to split trader sentiment.
Technicals and Outlook
Technically, XRP is at a crossroads. The 200-day moving average at $2.31 is key support; a breakdown there might send XRP down to $1.96 or worse. But if the buyers step in and ETF or legal news is positive, bullish bets by options traders could be warranted with a sharp bounce back to $3 or higher.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/9401/why-are-xrp-futures-bearish-while-options-stay-bullish