When Will SOL Break $160?

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top altcoins, Solana remains under immense selling pressure. While bulls struggle for momentum, $160 is emerging as a local resistance level for traders to watch out for.

Despite the upside momentum in September, Solana buyers didn’t lift prices above this line. At press time, there is a local double top, even as one analyst on X notes that Solana outperformed other platforms, posting a sharp influx in net inflow.

Solana Received Over $800 Million In Net Flows Over Three Months

Unlike Ethereum, Solana is a modern blockchain with relatively high scalability. The platform can process thousands of transactions every second, translating to low fees, and thus, more projects are choosing to launch on the network so that user experience remains unaffected. Events over the last three months, looking at the influx of capital to Solana, cement this position.

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To put in the numbers, Solana registered over $800 million in net flows. This capital injection is more than double what OP Mainnet, an Ethereum layer-2, received and way more than what Sui, another scalable blockchain, posted in the last three months. It is also more than what Base and Starknet–two of Ethereum’s popular layer-2s, posted, and exceeds what Avalanche and the BNB Chain received.

Interestingly, during this period, Arbitrum, an Ethereum layer-2 and the largest of them all, Linea, Blast, and Bitcoin saw outflows. Despite being the largest smart contracts platform, Ethereum posted massive outflows of nearly $800 million.

It remains to be seen what could have triggered the outflows in Ethereum while encouraging capital to Solana. While on-chain fee differences could be a factor, the continuous dump of ETH in Q3 2024 could have triggered the outflow. At spot rates, ETH is down 35% from Q3 2024 highs, while Solana is just 25% from July highs when it rose to around $192 before pulling back.

Will SOL Break $160?

Even as Solana attracts capital, the coin remains under intense selling pressure. The local line at $160 needs to be convincingly broken for the uptrend seen in the second half of 2023 to continue. Further gains will see Solana float to as high as $190 and possibly break out from the current range.

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Nonetheless, there could be headwinds. If Bitcoin fails to recover, it could drag the altcoin markets, including Solana, with it. At the same time, there are concerns that the upcoming FTX token distribution would negatively impact SOL prices.

Moreover, according to Token Unlocks, the team plans to release tokens on December 26, 2024. Over 66,000 SOL will go out every day for a year.

Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView