What’s the Latest on XRP Spot ETF Approval? Analysts Assess the Chances of Approval

The possibility of a spot ETF for XRP is gaining momentum once again amid renewed optimism after President Donald Trump announced plans to include XRP in a national cryptocurrency reserve.

As speculation mounts that this development could support regulatory approval, investors have quickly increased their bets on an XRP ETF to launch this year.

Market sentiment has shifted significantly in favor of an approval. On prediction platform Polymarket, traders currently set the probability of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) greenlighting an XRP ETF at 78%, an eight percentage point increase since Trump’s announcement on Sunday.

In February, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart estimated the probability of approval of an XRP ETF at 65%. But Trump’s proposal has injected new optimism into the market, even if its implementation remains uncertain.

The XRP price has reflected that excitement, rising 6.4% this year compared with Bitcoin’s 4.7% decline. Ripple’s cryptocurrency for cross-border payments has benefited from speculation that an ETF could improve its regulatory standing.

“The inclusion of XRP in a strategic reserve helps address some key regulatory concerns, strengthening the case for XRP ETF applications,” said Jonathan de Wet, chief investment officer at crypto trading firm Zerocap.

The SEC is currently reviewing five XRP ETF applications from financial firms including 21Shares, Grayscale, CoinShares, WisdomTree, and Canary Capital. The agency has until mid-October to rule on these proposals.

Meryem Habibi, chief revenue officer at crypto payment gateway Bitpace, suggested that Trump’s support for altcoins like XRP could accelerate ETF approvals for digital assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin ETFs, which launched in 2023, have been a huge success, accumulating $107 billion in assets under management, a record for the ETF market. Institutional investments through these funds have supported Bitcoin’s 150% price rally over the past year.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF alone has $50 billion in net assets and accounts for 6% of Bitcoin’s total market value.

Despite the success of Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum’s ETF debut has been relatively lackluster. Even with regulatory approval, ETH failed to reach all-time highs in the late-2024 crypto rally, raising questions about whether altcoin ETFs can generate similar investor enthusiasm.

Still, JPMorgan analysts estimate that XRP ETFs could attract $8 billion in investment inflows in the first year.

“Given previous examples of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals, this is likely to cause a surge in price,” said Jacob Joseph, senior research analyst at crypto data provider CCData.

*This is not investment advice.