The Bitcoin (BTC) market’s supply dynamics are being reshaped, with on-chain data showing that large holders of the asset are selling off some of their stash, while mid-tier investors are buying more.
This transition is happening as BTC trades near a long-term support zone, raising questions about whether its next move could be another leg higher or the start of a deeper correction.
Whales Retreat, Mid-Sized Players Step Forward
According to the data shared by analyst JA Maartunn, addresses with more than 1,000 BTC are getting smaller, while wallets with between 100 and 1,000 BTC are steadily getting bigger.
“Big Fish Down, Medium Players Up,” stated the market watcher on X, pointing to a supply redistribution from whales to smaller ETF custody accounts. This suggests institutional flows are gradually fragmenting among mid-sized entities rather than remaining concentrated with the largest holders.
At the same time, other traders are warning that Bitcoin has been in a “distribution phase” for more than two months. According to pseudonymous analyst Doctor Profit, heavy selling between $115,000 and $125,000 has consistently capped upward momentum, with whales and recently unlocked wallets offloading into rallies.
His cautious tone was reinforced by technical signals from a recent report by CryptoQuant expert CryptoOnchain, who highlighted BTC’s test of a major ascending trendline that coincided with the realized price of new whales. He suggested that if the price goes below this zone, it could break the bullish structure and start a long-term drop.
Despite the selling pressure from whales, not all analysts believe the bull run is finished. A previous analysis argues that cycle peaks are typically accompanied by retail euphoria and overheated on-chain metrics, conditions that are not present today. Additionally, indicators like a low Reserve Risk score suggest long-term holders remain confident, and expanding global liquidity could provide further tailwinds for appreciation.
Prices Hold, But Momentum Looks Fragile
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin is now worth $111,902, a modest 0.8% uptick from 24 hours ago. The world’s number one cryptocurrency has been between $110,909 and $112,806 in the last day, which is not as steep compared to the previous week, when it dropped as low as $108,799.
On a seven-day basis, BTC has gained 1.4%, while its two-week performance is slightly firmer at 1.8%. However, the bigger picture shows a 5.6% drop over the past month, a sign of cooling momentum after hitting its all-time high of $124,457 less than a month ago on August 14.
Year-on-year, the asset remains impressive with a 102.9% gain, even though its inability to retake the $115,000 to $125,000 band reflects the weight of ongoing profit-taking.
Binance Free $600 (CryptoPotato Exclusive): Use this link to register a new account and receive $600 exclusive welcome offer on Binance (full details).
LIMITED OFFER for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link to register and open a $500 FREE position on any coin!