Whales bet big on TRUMP, but retail dumps fast: Who wins this round?

Key Takeaways

TRUMP logged $1.15 million Futures inflow, a negative Spot delta, and steady whale accumulation. With price above short-term averages yet below SAR, can TRUMP escape its tight trading range?

Since hitting $9.25 on the 1st of September, Official Trump [TRUMP] has traded within a narrow margin. Over the past week, the memecoin remained between $8.1 and $8.5 in a tight consolidation range.

And, during this market cooldown, Trump investors, both retail and whales, entered into the market for strategic positioning ahead of its next move.  

Demand for Trump Futures soars

Interestingly, the whales that have accumulated TRUMP have consistently jumped into the Futures market to take strategic positions. 

According to CoinGlass, the memecoin saw $88.54 million in inflows against $87.39 million in outflows over 24 hours. This, obviously, left a net inflow of $1.15 million.

Source: CoinGlass

On top of that, Official Trump’s Long/Short Ratio surged to 3.61, with longs at 78% and shorts at 21%. Such dominance typically signals bullish sentiment, as traders bet on higher prices.

Spot traders pull the brakes

Surprisingly, while the Futures market recorded sustained capital inflow, the Spot market took the opposite direction. 

According to Coinalyze, TRUMP memecoin recorded a negative Spot Buy/Sell Delta for seven of the past eight days.

Over this period, the memecoin saw 23.497 million in Sell Volume compared to 22.17 million in Buy Volume. 

Source: Coinalyze

That is why the memecoin recorded a negative Buy/Sell Delta of 1.32 million at press time — a clear sign of aggressive selling. 

Exchange activity also echoed this selling trend.

According to CoinGlass, TRUMP posted two straight days of positive Spot Netflow, with $3.73 million at press time versus $187,000 the day before.

Source: CoinGlass

Historically, higher inflows often preceded selling pressure and potential price weakness.

Whales quietly stack more TRUMP

Even as TRUMP retraced and stabilized, demand from whales remained constant.

According to Nansen, the memecoin recorded a positive Whale Balance Change for five consecutive days. At press time, TRUMP’s top holders’ Balance Change was 121k tokens.

Contextually speaking, it is a significant jump from 44k tokens the previous day.

Source: Nansen

Typically, when Balance Change is positive, it means whales are buying more than they are selling — yet again, a clear bullish sign.

TRUMP’s chart stuck in limbo

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, TRUMP’s narrow range comes from a disconnect between Futures inflows and Spot selling. Whales remained active in Derivatives, while retail traders sold into rallies.

Source: TradingView

At press time, the memecoin was above Long-term MA (21DMA) and Short-term MA (9DMA), signaling short-term upward momentum.

Still, the token sat below its Parabolic SAR at $9.16, keeping trend bias tilted downward.

For a bullish reversal, TRUMP must close above $9.16. Failure to do so could expose downside to $8.43, then $8.2 support.