VanEck Says Policy Clarity Sets Up a Risk-On Q1 for Investors

• VanEck expects Q1 2026 to be supportive of risk assets due to fiscal and monetary policy clarity.
• The broken four-year Bitcoin cycle makes market forecasts difficult, though the market structure has improved.
• There are expectations that cryptos will be positively affected by improving risk appetite in early 2026.

The first quarter of next year will be favorable for risk-taking, as van Eck, an international investment management company, says that investors now have the clarity that they have been lacking for so long. This has been stated in the Q1 Outlook for the year 2026, which van Eck released on the second day of this week.

“As we move into 2026, markets are operating in an environment with something investors have not had in years: visibility,” VanEck stated. The firm believes this backdrop supports a risk-on posture, which typically benefits equities, technology stocks, and alternative assets such as crypto.

However, VanEck struck a more nuanced tone on Bitcoin. The firm noted that the cryptocurrency’s traditional four-year cycle “broke in 2025,” making short-term signals less reliable. As a result, VanEck adopted a more cautious view over the next three to six months, even as some executives inside the firm remain more constructive on the immediate cycle.

Fiscal and monetary surprises fade

On the other hand, the improving budget situation in the US sparked optimism, according to VanEck, because even though the deficits remain high, they have actually continued to move lower as a percentage of GDP from the levels seen at the height of the COVID era. This has, in turn, helped stabilize longer-term interest rates that were threatened by tail risks in the previous period.

However, on the monetary front, there are fewer unknowns, and the clarity of central bank communication and signaling makes markets more confident about pricing policies. All in all, these are supportive of risk assets, particularly if leverage remains managed.

However, the recent Bitcoin activity has added complexity to the equation. Following the large deleveraging, BTC broke out from equity and gold correlation trends. Although this helped to weed out the speculation, it also nullified the traditional relationship between Bitcoin and other macros during the risk-on environment.

Analysts see healthier crypto conditions

According to Justin D’Anethan, head of Research at Arctic Digital, the forecast by VanEck corresponds to medium-term factors and lacks consistency with short-term market movements. Justin stated that “We’re seeing a healthier market structure underlying bitcoin’s price increases in a low-leverage environment, which we’re seeing as of late.”

“With BTC in a low leverage situation, it’s like the fluff from last year has been pruned,” he said. Bulls have now become more realistic, and the extreme bearish tales have vanished, as per d’Anethan. He continued, saying that many indicators were in the deep oversold levels and ready for reversal.

Geopolitics and friction between the US administration and the Fed could create volatility. Nevertheless, d’Anethan added that market risk appetite and global uncertainty could ultimately be beneficial to the crypto market as people seek alternatives.

H1 2026 outlook turns clearer

HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun also sees the first half of 2026 shaping up as a classic risk-on window. He said fiscal stimulus, accommodative financial conditions, and favorable regulatory developments could align as U.S. midterm elections approach.

“In such an environment, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market stand to benefit,” Sun said, arguing that the macro setup increasingly favors digital assets.

Some market participants remain outright bullish. Crypto investor Will Clemente said the current mix of political pressure on central banks, rising geopolitical risk, and strong demand for alternative stores of value fits Bitcoin’s original purpose.

Analysts eye a return to six figures

MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe expects Bitcoin to reclaim six figures before the end of January. He pointed to the steady accumulation near the 21-day moving average and suggested that breaking above $92,000 could spark a swift move to $100,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $92,000 levels after briefly touching the low $90,000 region, with market participants abuzz about how market clarity could genuinely mark the beginning of the risk-on period in Q1.

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