VanEck Projects $2.9M By 2050 As Price Tests Triangle Apex Near $90K

• Bitcoin trades at $90,600 inside symmetrical triangle as VanEck projects $2.9 million valuation by 2050 with 15% annual returns.

• Open interest climbs 0.21% to $61.26 billion while volume collapses 70%, showing stagnant positioning ahead of triangle resolution.

• Long/short ratios hit 2.29 on Binance as traders lean bullish, but price remains trapped below all major EMAs at $90,172-$99,742.

Bitcoin price today trades near $90,600 as asset manager VanEck published a long-term framework projecting BTC could reach $2.9 million by 2050, assuming adoption as a global settlement layer and central bank reserve asset. The valuation arrives as price compresses inside a symmetrical triangle that has narrowed volatility for weeks, setting up a decisive breakout or breakdown.

VanEck Models 15% Annual Returns Through 2050

VanEck’s research, authored by head of digital assets Matthew Sigel and senior analyst Patrick Bush, outlines a base-case scenario valuing bitcoin at roughly $2.9 million by 2050. The framework assumes bitcoin gains traction handling 5 to 10 percent of international trade settlement volume while central banks gradually allocate small portions of reserves to BTC.

The projection represents a departure from short-term price targets, instead modeling bitcoin’s value through multi-decade adoption scenarios. VanEck emphasizes the estimate depends on regulatory clarity, operational infrastructure, and political acceptance that have yet to materialize.

The firm models long-term annualized volatility between 40 and 70 percent, comparing bitcoin to frontier markets rather than traditional assets. Even in bear-case scenarios, VanEck assumes positive long-term returns, reflecting what it describes as bitcoin’s growing structural relevance.

From a portfolio perspective, the analysis suggests that 1 to 3 percent allocations have historically improved risk-adjusted returns in diversified portfolios. VanEck stresses this does not imply bitcoin is low-risk, but rather that volatility has not translated proportionally into portfolio-level risk when position sizes are constrained.

Derivatives Show Stagnant Positioning Ahead Of Triangle Break

Futures data reveals conflicting signals. Open interest climbed 0.21 percent to $61.26 billion, showing stable positioning with minimal new capital entering the market. However, volume collapsed 70.41 percent to $21.89 billion, marking one of the quietest sessions in months.

The combination of flat open interest and plunging volume suggests traders are waiting rather than betting aggressively. Options volume dropped 80.73 percent to $748.74 million, while options open interest fell 1.35 percent to $32.60 billion.

Long/short ratios show heavy bullish bias. Binance accounts reflect a 2.29 ratio favoring longs, while OKX sits at 2.11. Top traders on Binance show 2.60 long/short positioning, indicating professional participants are leaning bullish despite the stagnant price action.

The 24-hour aggregate long/short ratio sits at 0.96, nearly balanced. However, the account-level skew toward longs creates squeeze risk if price breaks the triangle to the downside. When leverage is stacked on one side and a key level fails, follow-through is typically stronger.

Symmetrical Triangle Compresses At Critical Support

Bitcoin price today trades inside a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, with price sitting just above lower trendline support near $89,500. The triangle has compressed volatility since mid-December, and the apex is approaching, which typically forces a resolution.

Key technical levels show:

• 20-day EMA: $90,172
• 50-day EMA: $91,530
• 100-day EMA: $96,080
• 200-day EMA: $99,742
• Bollinger Band support: $89,519

BTC trades below all major EMAs, forming a resistance ceiling that extends from $90,172 to $99,742. Buyers need to reclaim the 20-day EMA first before challenging the larger cluster. The Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band at $89,519, with the middle band at $93,667 acting as immediate resistance.

Hourly Chart Shows SAR Resistance Overhead

BTC 1H Chart (Source: TradingView)

The hourly timeframe shows Bitcoin testing the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle near $90,500. The Parabolic SAR reads $90,734, sitting just above current price. A close above this level would flip the indicator bullish and signal buyers are defending the triangle structure.

The Supertrend indicator sits at $90,201, providing immediate support. Price is trading in a narrow band between Supertrend support and SAR resistance, creating a compression zone. Volume during this consolidation has been weak, showing neither aggressive buying nor selling pressure.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?

The triangle resolution will determine near-term direction. If BTC breaks above $91,500 with volume and reclaims the 20-day EMA, the structure shifts bullish. That would target $93,600 initially, with further upside toward $96,000 if momentum builds.

If price loses $89,500 and breaks the triangle to the downside, the pattern completes bearishly. That exposes $86,000 support, with deeper downside toward $84,000 if selling accelerates and over-leveraged longs unwind.

Breaking $91,500 confirms upside. Losing $89,500 activates correction risk.