Unpacking the Strange Divergence in Financial Markets

While traditional safe havens and equity markets are going up to levels never seen before, Bitcoin (BTC), the crypto asset that has been called “digital gold,” is staying the same.

This strange disconnect between the flagship cryptocurrency and other major financial instruments is making market watchers question its role in a shaky global economy and look into the internal forces that might be keeping it down.

A Market of Contradictions

Analyst JA Maartunn recently noted in a video posted on X that the current state of the economy is hard to understand. Gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset, has gone up over 37% this year, even hitting a new all-time high of $3,697 while writing this. Meanwhile, silver has increased by more than 41%, with U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy NASDAQ trading at or near their peak values.

“You’ve got this really confusing picture, right?” noted Maartunn. “The safe assets are up, and the risky assets are up. It’s like the market is both risk-on and risk-off at the exact same time.”

According to him, the fact that both conservative and risk-on assets are going up at the same time suggests that the market is protecting itself against major instability caused by a weak U.S. dollar, political uncertainty in Europe, and mounting sovereign debt.

Typically, such an environment would be fertile ground for Bitcoin, which proponents argue functions as a non-sovereign store of value. But its price movement tells a different story: it stays in a range while everything else moves up.

Maartunn says that the reason Bitcoin isn’t doing as well as it could be is probably because of problems in its own ecosystem, not because of bigger macro trends. His analysis shows that long-term holders are selling off a lot, with about 230,000 BTC sold in the last 30 days alone. This constant selling pressure has made it impossible for incoming demand to keep up, which has caused a stalemate that has stopped the OG crypto from going up by any significant margin.

Bitcoin Price Action

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin was trading at $115,852, down 0.5% in the last 24 hours but up 3.4% on the week. Its price has oscillated between $114,509 and $116,450 in the past day, and within a $110,870–$116,705 band over the last seven, reflecting consolidation rather than trend continuation.

The current value also represents a 1.9% dip across the past month, keeping BTC 6.6% below its all-time high set on August 14. However, the asset has gained 97% year-on-year.

Some analysts believe the quiet may not last. A September 15 report flagged a rare golden cross on Bitcoin’s daily MACD paired with an MVRV bottom near $107,000, a signal that has historically preceded 30% to 40% rallies. As such, observers believe it could set the stage for a move toward $140,000 or higher if history repeats.

Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has argued that macro liquidity, not cycles, will extend Bitcoin’s bull run into 2026. He also doubled down on an earlier target of $250,000 for the asset, stressing that short-term frustration shouldn’t overshadow its long-term edge against fiat debasement.

For now, though, Maartunn’s diagnosis looms largest: until fresh demand can absorb the torrent of BTC being sold by long-term holders, the number one cryptocurrency may remain trapped in its sideways pattern.