UNI Technical Analysis Feb 22

UNI is currently maintaining its downtrend structure with the lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) pattern dominant. Breaking the $3.7573 resistance could signal a trend change, otherwise the $3.45 support may be tested.

Market Structure Overview

UNI’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. The price has shifted away from the higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) structure recently, transitioning to a lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) pattern. The current price is at $3.46 with a 24-hour change of -4.05%. While squeezed in the $3.45-$3.65 range, it cannot hold above EMA20 ($3.65), strengthening the short-term bearish structure. The Supertrend signal is bearish, and the $4.48 resistance forms a strong ceiling. RSI at 40.28 is not approaching oversold but remains in the neutral-bearish zone; although there is positive histogram divergence on MACD, the overall structure supports the downside. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 13 strong levels were identified on 1D/3D/1W: balanced with 3 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, and resistance-heavy with 2S/4R on 1W. This reinforces the long-term bearish bias. News related to BlackRock and UNI (purchase claims and DeFi developments) has created short-term volatility but has not changed the structural downtrend.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

Although the downtrend dominates, bullish signals are limited. For a higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) structure, the price must break the $3.7573 swing high (score:69/100) and form a new HH. The positive divergence on the MACD histogram could warn of a potential CHoCH (Change of Character). The $3.5148 level (score:60/100) may be tested as a short-term HL, but without breaking EMA20 ($3.65), the HH/HL trend does not begin. Bullish continuation target is $5.5005 (score:26), but it looks difficult due to BTC correlation. News flow (Lido and Chaos Labs integrations) could increase liquidity, but structural confirmation is awaited.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is clear with LH/LL: staying below the last swing high $3.7573, testing swing low $3.4505 (score:70/100). Formation of lower highs (reactions lower than $3.5148) and lower lows risk (towards $3.2173) are high. With RSI near 40, momentum is weak and Supertrend is bearish. Bearish breakdown target is $1.4004 (score:22). On the 1W timeframe, 4 resistances/2 supports support the long-term LL pattern. If price drops below $3.45, CHoCH is confirmed bearish and opens the path to $3.0212.

Break of Structure (BOS) Levels

Break of Structure (BOS) levels are critical. For bullish BOS, a close above $3.7573 is required; this breaks LH/LL and transitions to HL, targeting $4.8734. Bearish BOS is a break below $3.4505: this invalidates the last swing low and brings $3.2173 support into play. The $4.48 Supertrend resistance is a major BOS obstacle. Although 1D is balanced in MTF, 1W resistances facilitate bearish BOS. BOS confirmation comes with daily/4H closes; watch for fakeouts! These levels determine trend continuation vs. reversal.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $3.7573 (strongest, score:69/100) – resistance as LH, break starts HH/HL. $4.8734 (score:61/100) – medium-term ceiling, test before bearish target. $3.5148 (score:60/100) – short-term LH, even if price pulls to here, it must challenge $3.7573. These points form the backbone of the downtrend; staying below sustains LH/LL.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $3.4505 (score:70/100) – critical support, hold becomes HL; break is LL and bearish BOS. $3.2173 (score:65/100) – next defense, breakdown accelerates here. $3.0212 (score:62/100) – deep support, completes LL pattern. These lows form the structural base; below $3.45 extinguishes reversal hopes and opens to $1.4004.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $67,544 is in a downtrend (-0.99% 24h), Supertrend bearish. UNI, a highly correlated altcoin with BTC; if BTC breaks $67,535 support (towards $64,427), UNI’s LH/LL accelerates and tests $3.2173. If BTC resistances $68,071-$70,648 are overcome, UNI’s $3.7573 BOS chance increases. Rising BTC dominance crushes altcoins; UNI bullish is tough without $74,487. Monitor BTC key supports: golden supports protect UNI, breaks bring synchronized downside. Follow BTC structure for UNI Spot and Futures.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL downtrend continues, likely drop to $3.0212 if $3.4505 does not hold. For bullish, $3.7573 BOS and BTC recovery are required; CHoCH signal may come with MACD divergence. Swing levels are educational: HH/HL defines upside, LH/LL downside. BOS breaks confirm trend changes. News (BlackRock UNI purchase, DeFi integrations) is positive but structure remains bearish. Investors should manage risk with MTF levels and BTC correlation. Note: Market structures are dynamic, monitor continuously. (Word count: ~1050)