U.S. Government Shutdown Probability at 71% on Polymarket

Polymarket estimates a 71% likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown on October 1st. This forecast, reported by BlockBeats News, is based on prediction markets dynamics.

The potential shutdown could disrupt economic activities, impacting prediction markets and investors’ confidence. Crypto assets like ETH might experience increased trading activities due to market speculation.

Crypto Market Faces Uncertainty Amid Shutdown Speculations

The market response has seen an uptick in ETH and USDC trading, reflecting heightened speculation.

However, no substantial evidence of liquidity shifts or volume spikes is officially reported by the exchange. The limited information from both Polymarket and industry leaders results in clouded interpretations of expected market movements.

“The latest communications from Polymarket have been generic, with no attributed statements on the current odds for the upcoming U.S. government shutdown.” — Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket

Market Data and Insights

Did you know? In past U.S. government shutdowns, prediction markets similarly faced activity surges as Congressional negotiations drove volatility, influencing assets like ETH and USDC significantly.

CoinMarketCap data shows that Ethereum (ETH) trades at $3,998.56 with a market cap of $482.64 billion, maintaining 12.80% market share as of September 27, 2025. Trading volume has recently dropped by 43.07%, affecting liquidity. ETH’s price increased by 2.90% in 24 hours but saw a 10.56% drop over seven days.

The Coincu research team suggests this shutdown forecast affects crypto markets by influencing confidence and trading volume trends. Historically, prediction markets have indicated financial disruptions, yet no clear regulation or leadership direction has emerged amid current scenarios.