U.S. Government Shutdown Likely as Odds Rise on Kalshi

The probability of a U.S. government shutdown on October 1, 2025, has climbed to 80%, according to the prediction platform Kalshi, amid legislative gridlock in Washington.

The likelihood of a government shutdown influences market volatility, particularly in cryptocurrency sectors, as investors brace for potential shifts in asset stability and liquidity dynamics.

Kalshi and Polymarket Signal 80% Shutdown Probability

Market predictions for potential U.S. government shutdown have been highlighted, with Kalshi recently reporting an 80% probability following legislative stalemates in Washington. Sources confirm that institutional involvement is high, with significant liquidity present on Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.

BTC and ETH are often monitored for volatility during shutdowns due to potential inflows as safe havens. Related altcoins, such as USDT and USDC, might experience increased trading volumes as market participants reassess risks in such periods.

Key figures like Raoul Pal highlight Kalshi’s market signal, indicating market fragility.

Arthur Hayes sees potential volatility surges in the crypto sector, while Vitalik Buterin emphasizes the importance of decentralized systems amid government stoppages.

Bitcoin Uptick During Shutdowns: Market Patterns and Predictions

Did you know? Previous U.S. government shutdowns typically led to increased BTC trading volumes as investors sought refuge in non-sovereign assets, highlighting the crypto market’s potential during macroeconomic uncertainties.

Bitcoin (BTC) currently trades at $113,146.81 with a market cap of 2,254,812,652,316 and dominance of 58.34%. The past 24-hour trading volume is 58,753,247,448, reflecting a 4.70% fluctuation. Price changes include a 0.04% increase over the last seven days, based on CoinMarketCap data.

Coincu analysts believe regulatory shifts might spur crypto adoption, while technological advancements in decentralized finance could be a focal point during such shutdowns, supporting broader cryptocurrency ecosystem growth.

“Macro uncertainty like a US gov shutdown is gasoline for crypto volatility.” – Arthur Hayes