U.S. Dollar steadies as March Fed hold odds near 96%

Markets currently assign a 95.9% probability that the federal reserve will leave its benchmark rate unchanged at the March meeting, based on data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The pricing reflects positioning in interest-rate futures around the target range, indicating broad expectations for a pause rather than an adjustment as policymakers await fresh data.

Why markets expect interest rates unchanged at March Fed meeting

The elevated hold odds reflect persistent inflation in services and a labor market that has not shown decisive weakness, which together reduce the urgency to adjust policy.

The Fed has emphasized a data-dependent approach, making upcoming readings on employment and prices central to the near-term policy path and reinforcing a bias toward waiting for clearer disinflation signals.

What a March hold means for mortgages, dollar, and risk

As reported by Yahoo Finance, the national average 30-year mortgage rate recently ticked down to about 6.01% using Freddie Mac data. A March hold would tend to keep borrowing costs elevated relative to earlier-cycle lows, though outcomes still depend on term premiums and credit spreads.

A steady stance can modestly ease upward pressure on the U.S. dollar if markets anticipate eventual easing. As reported by AOL, the dollar was heading for its worst week since late July as traders increased bets on easier policy ahead.

Risk assets often respond to shifts in interest-rate expectations. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $64,200 with very high short-term volatility near 10.68%, indicating sensitivity to macro signals.

What could shift the March odds before the decision

February jobs and inflation readings

A stronger-than-expected February employment report or a re-acceleration in core inflation would likely reduce the already slim chance of a March move. Softer data could raise the debate but may not overcome the prevailing pause expectation.

Signals from Fed officials like Christopher Waller

Recent Fed communications emphasize data dependence and caution about moving prematurely, suggesting policymakers want clearer evidence of disinflation and labor cooling before changing course.

as fed Governor Christopher Waller put it, the March decision is a “coin flip,” with upcoming jobs and inflation reports carrying unusual weight.

Which upcoming data (jobs, inflation) could shift the odds before the March decision?

February nonfarm payrolls and core inflation, including PCE, are the key inputs that could quickly reprice the odds.

What are Fed officials like Christopher Waller signaling about a potential March rate move?

He signals a cautious stance, calling March a “coin flip” and stressing the importance of the next jobs and inflation readings.