U.S. Bank Predicts Fed to Maintain Rates Through 2025

Key Points:

  • U.S. Bank sees no Fed rate cuts in 2025 due to economic strength.
  • Projected stable housing data contrasts with market expectations.
  • Fed’s steady policy likely tightens global liquidity, impacting BTC.

U.S. Bank forecasts that the Federal Reserve will maintain its interest rate policy throughout 2025, countering market expectations of a rate cut. This outlook is based on resilient consumer spending and unexpected retail sales growth as of July 21, 2025. The bank’s prediction holds significance as it underscores a focus on economic strength over political influences, likely impacting global financial landscapes and risk asset valuations.

U.S. Bank predicts that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in 2025, despite earlier speculation in financial markets. According to their economic research group, strong consumer spending and commodity inflation indicate ongoing resilience in the U.S. economy. The bank noted that retail sales data for June exceeded expectations, further supporting their projections while cautioning against politically-driven rate cuts that could disrupt inflation stability.

Bitcoin Faces Stagnation Amid Stable Interest Rates

As a result of these economic conditions, U.S. Bank forecasts slight increases in jobless claims and a potential 11% decline in durable goods orders. They also expect stable data for the housing market, albeit concurrent with a tightening policy environment. The outlook reinforces pressure on financial markets, especially for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Market reactions have been cautious, with U.S. Bank warning about the risks of politically motivated adjustments in an election year, which could increase credit risk. There have been no major public statements from high-profile crypto figures or regulatory bodies directly connected to this forecast, maintaining an environment of uncertainty regarding short-term crypto asset behavior.

“We still expect the Fed to engineer a soft landing for the U.S. economy, but with a much bumpier ride… Job growth continues to moderate in June, but at relatively healthy levels and not enough to move the Fed from its ‘wait-and-see’ approach” — U.S. Bank Economics Research Group, Senior Leadership, U.S. Bank

Market Data and Insights

Did you know? Periods of stable interest rates historically cause Bitcoin and Ethereum prices to stagnate, echoing past trends seen in 2018 and 2023 when macroeconomic caution prevailed.

As of July 21, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) holds a market value of $118,653.08 with a market capitalization of formatNumber(2360650455090.17, 2) and a price rise of 0.42% in 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Over a 90-day period, BTC increased by 31.59%, while its trading volume grew 32.38% in the past 24 hours, reflecting moderate market dynamics amidst macroeconomic factors.

bitcoin-daily-chart-2326

Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 13:43 UTC on July 21, 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap

Insights from the Coincu research team suggest the continued Fed rate stance could limit near-term volatility for high-beta crypto assets. By historical precedent, yield opportunities in traditional finance may deter significant capital flows into crypto, highlighted in prior cycles of steady U.S. economic indicators and unchanged monetary policy.

Source: https://coincu.com/349928-us-bank-predicts-no-rate-cuts-2025/