TRX continues in a strong downtrend, trading below EMA20, with Supertrend resistance at 0.31 creating pressure. Momentum indicators are giving bearish signals, while efforts to hold the critical support zone at 0.2816 are observed; in case of a breakdown, the risk of deepening towards 0.27 levels is high.
Executive Summary
TRX is trading at 0.29 USD as of February 1, 2026, sustaining its downward momentum with a 2.02% daily loss. The overall technical picture shows a bearish structure: Price below EMA20 (0.30), RSI around 38 in neutral-bearish territory, and MACD showing a negative histogram. Critical resistances cluster in the 0.2898-0.3013 band, with 0.2816 as the first support test point. Bitcoin’s downtrend creates additional pressure on altcoins; selling pressure dominates in the short term, while BTC stabilization is essential for long-term recovery. Risk/reward ratio is weak for longs (bull target 0.3347 score 44/100), more attractive for bears.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
TRX shows clear downtrend dominance across higher timeframes (1D/3D/1W). On the daily chart, price has declined nearly 20% from recent highs, approaching the lower band of the descending channel. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal and positions 0.31 as resistance. Short-term trend is bearish; price remaining below EMA20 (0.30) confirms short-term weakness. Multi-timeframe analysis identifies 10 strong levels: 3 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2S/1R on 3D, 3S/2R on 1W. This confluence indicates the current decline is structural; an upside breakout requires a close above 0.2959.
Structural Levels
Structural levels have been determined by synthesizing Fibonacci retracements, pivot points, and volume profile. The lower boundary of the main descending channel is the 0.2766-0.2816 band (score 65-72/100), the area where potential bounce buys will be tested. The upper channel boundary is limited at 0.3013 (score 65/100). On the weekly chart, 0.2706 stands out as a strong demand zone; a break here triggers the major bearish scenario. The overall structure strengthens the bearish bias with the break of higher lows.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 38.19; approaching oversold (30) but no divergence, bearish momentum continues. MACD shows widening negative histogram, confirmed crossover below signal line – strong sell signal. Stochastic %K around 25, death cross observed with %D. Momentum confluence is bearish; a 30 RSI breakdown in the short term would signal deepening. In the long term (1W RSI 42), there is neutralisation potential, but BTC pressure is a barrier.
Trend Indicators
EMAs in bearish alignment: Price below EMA20 (0.30), with EMA50 (0.305) and EMA200 (0.32) forming a resistance cluster. Supertrend bearish, trailing stop at 0.31. Trading below Ichimoku cloud, tenkan-sen death cross confirmed. All trend indicators support the downtrend; a close above EMA20 (0.302+) would signal a trend change. On multi-TF, awaiting 1W Supertrend flip, currently remains bearish.
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Supports: 0.2816 (score 72/100, volume-backed pivot), 0.2766 (65/100, channel lower band), 0.2706 (65/100, 1W demand). These levels align with the 24h range (0.28-0.29); failure to hold 0.2816 increases cascade risk. Resistances: 0.2898 (86/100, strongest, EMA20 confluence), 0.2959 (71/100, Fib 38.2%), 0.3013 (65/100, Supertrend). Breakout scores cluster at high resistances; rejection at 0.2898 offers short opportunity. Targets: Bull 0.3347 (44/100, low probability), Bear 0.2395 (4/100, aggressive target). Level map shows 80% bearish bias with 1D/3D/1W confluence.
Volume and Market Participation
24h volume at 197.58M USD is moderate; volume increase on down day confirms selling pressure, but distant from peak volumes (30% lower). OBV shows no negative divergence but flat – buyer participation weak. Volume profile POC (point of control) at 0.28-0.29, support test may come with volume. Low-volume rallies fail; volume spike required for bearish continuation. In BTC dumps, alt volumes generally stay low, similar pattern observed in TRX.
Risk Assessment
Risk/reward: From current 0.29, bull target 0.3347 is 15% up (RR 1:1.5, score 44 low probability), bear 0.2395 is 17% down (RR 1:2+, attractive). Main risks: BTC 78K support breakdown (cascade to 75K), TRX 0.2816 stop-hunt. Volatility high (ATR 5%+), position sizing 1-2% risk. No upside catalysts; absence of news is bearish. Strategy: Short bias, short at 0.2898 / stop 0.2816, target 0.2766. For longs, wait for 0.3013 break. Overall risk level high, protective orders mandatory.
Bitcoin Correlation
TRX correlates with BTC at 0.85; BTC at 78,627 USD with -6.45% decline in downtrend, Supertrend bearish. BTC key supports 78,809/75,720/64,655; 78K breakdown pushes TRX to 0.27. Resistances 80,357/83,160 – BTC bounce brings limited relief to TRX (0.2959 test). Rising dominance creates alt pressure; TRX recovery difficult without BTC stabilization. Watch: BTC 75K break – major short signal for TRX.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
TRX technical picture shows bearish dominance in comprehensive synthesis: Structural downtrend, indicator confluence, weak volume, and BTC negativity continue selling pressure in short-medium term. Even if critical 0.2816 support holds, rally limited (0.30 max), breakdown leads to 0.24 target. Strategic: Shorts prioritized, longs speculative. For detailed spot analysis, check TRX Spot Analysis, for futures TRX Futures Analysis. Market volatile; disciplined risk management essential. (Word count: ~1250)
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.