Trump Tariffs Fail to Slow Emerging Growth

• Emerging markets achieve 3.4% growth despite ongoing U.S. trade tariff pressures.
• AI hardware exports to the U.S. help emerging markets offset trade disruptions.
• Infrastructure spending supports economic resilience amid global trade tensions and uncertainty.

Emerging markets have so far weathered U.S. trade tariffs with less disruption than many analysts anticipated, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Growth across 40+ countries monitored by the institution reached 3.4% in the last year, exceeding earlier forecasts. Economists note that while trade tensions have altered global supply chains, several countries continue to benefit from strong infrastructure spending and technological exports.

Trade Shifts and Economic Opportunities

The EBRD highlights that trade diversion has created unexpected opportunities for certain economies. Countries including Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland have increased exports of AI-related hardware, such as processors, servers, and computing systems, to the United States. 

These exports partly replaced shipments previously sourced from China. Consequently, some markets have seen stronger-than-expected growth, demonstrating the ability of emerging economies to adapt to global trade disruptions.

Moreover, slowing inflation in parts of Europe and heavy government investment in infrastructure are sustaining economic momentum. Roads, hospitals, and other long-term projects have boosted domestic activity. 

EBRD’s chief economist Beata Javorcik emphasized that strategic public investment remains critical, especially as global uncertainties could deter private investors. By focusing spending on productive assets rather than temporary emergency measures, governments can strengthen long-term growth potential.

Lingering Risks and Policy Challenges

Despite positive signals, risks remain. Many U.S. tariffs were implemented after the trade flows analyzed in the EBRD report, leaving the full impacts unclear. Additionally, legal rulings have created uncertainty over the scope of presidential authority to impose tariffs. 

Countries face ongoing “emergency mode” pressures, including defense spending linked to the war in Ukraine. Such pressures could limit resources available for broader development priorities.

Javorcik noted that this constant turbulence forces policymakers to respond to immediate shocks, reducing their capacity to address structural challenges such as demographic shifts. Consequently, governments must carefully prioritize public spending to achieve maximum economic benefit. If investments focus on infrastructure with long-term impact rather than short-term equipment purchases, they can mitigate the risks of trade volatility while sustaining growth.

Outlook for 2026 and Beyond

The EBRD now projects 3.6% growth for 2026 and 3.7% in 2027, slightly higher than previous forecasts. However, the bank cautioned that continued global uncertainty could yet disrupt emerging economies. Effective policy decisions and targeted public investment will determine whether these markets maintain resilience in a shifting trade environment.

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