Regarding the USA presidential elections, even on the prediction market Kalshi, Donald Trump appears to be ahead of Kamala Harris. The platform’s researcher, Jack Such, has revealed some evidence supporting the Republican candidate.
US Elections: the Kalshi analyst reveals some evidence confirming Trump’s advantage
Among the hottest topics of the moment, there is certainly the election for the Presidency in the USA.
On Kalshi and on other prediction market platforms, it seems that the Republican candidate Donald Trump is ahead of his Democratic rival Kamala Harris.
At the time of writing, on Kalshi, Trump is shown as the winner at 56%, against Harris’s 44%. The surge in support for Trump began in the early days of this month.
Not only that, this result was then commented on by a Kalshi analyst, Jack Such, who described the most important revelations.
“The increase in Trump’s probabilities on Kalshi is not a completely unexpected event. Harris is declining in key demographic sectors and has lost ground in all the “blue wall” states over the past three weeks.”
In practice, Such emphasized that the Republican competitor is under-performing with blacks who are usually strong supporters of the Democrats. And then, the Kalshi analyst continues:
“Compared to the variations in the main presidential market probabilities, Trump’s chance of winning the electoral college and the popular vote occurred exclusively at the expense of his chances of winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote. This tells us that Kalshi’s hypothesis behind a Trump victory is rooted in the belief of his broad support rather than the belief that he will manage to make a bull move in one or two key states.”
In any case, the increase in popular vote expected for Trump is largely fueled by North Carolina, with the probability of his victory rising from 3.5% to 19%, along with the increase in Pennsylvania (+4%) and in Michigan, which reflects the weakening of Harris’s blue wall.
US Elections: the momentum in favor of Trump for a Harris underperformance
According to what the Kalshi analyst said, the momentum in favor of Trump highlighted since the beginning of this month, derives from Harris’s underperformance in her electoral campaign.
In practice, the data shows that Harris is losing some of her supporters to become President of the USA. Among these, there would be mostly black voters.
The current favorite candidate, Trump, wasted no time and highlighted everything on X as follows:
“The support for Kamala is collapsing among black voters. Inflation is a hell. Worse still, their cities are being used as dumping grounds for illegal immigrants. If Kamala gets another 4 years, the black community will lose its political power forever because their neighborhoods will all be majority immigrants.”
The decline of Harris is found not only on Kalshi and other prediction markets, but also in the polls. The general explanation for her drop in popularity is attributed to the main demographic groups.
The situation on Polymarket
The momentum in favor of Trump on Kalshi came just a few days after it started on Polymarket, another prediction market platform involving crypto.
In fact, as early as October 5, the bets on Trump as the winner of the USA elections on Polymarket exceeded those on Harris. Today, the bets show that the new USA President will be 61.3% for Trump, against 38.6% for Harris.
As soon as Trump became the favorite candidate on Polymarket, Elon Musk also intervened on X, praising the crypto platform compared to the polls, as it uses “real money.”
Yet, looking at the general bets on Polymarket, in the same days, it emerged that only 12.7% of the crypto wallets on the platform managed to make profits.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2024/10/17/usa-elections-trump-ahead-of-harris-even-on-kalshi/