Triangle Pattern Forms as Traders Await Breakout Direction

TLDR

• Dogecoin (DOGE) price dipped 1.2% on “DOGE Day” (April 20, 2025), trading around $0.159 as celebrations were more subdued than previous years
• Technical analysts predict Dogecoin could drop to $0.142 in the short term but potentially rebound to $0.20 by month-end if it breaks out of its current triangle pattern
• Mixed market sentiment surrounds DOGE, partially due to Elon Musk’s controversial political role with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) within the Trump administration
• Short-term traders have increased by over 100% in the past month, while long-term holders decreased by 2.67%
• Analyst “Steph is Crypto” predicts a possible 500% rally to $0.73583 in the coming weeks based on chart patterns, while others forecast a drop to $0.09 before any major rally

Dogecoin, the popular memecoin with a current market cap of $23.2 billion, experienced a 1.2% price dip on Sunday, April 20, as the crypto community celebrated the annual “DOGE Day.” While previous celebrations sparked rallies and online hype, this year’s event saw more cautious sentiment, with DOGE price hovering around $0.159.

DOGE Day, celebrated every April 20 (4/20), began as an internet movement to push Dogecoin to $1 in 2021. It has since evolved into a yearly event marked by online campaigns, memes, and trading activity.

This year’s subdued celebration capped off a lackluster week for the cryptocurrency. Dogecoin failed to break out of its consolidation range and remained stuck below $0.17 despite brief spikes in volume midweek.

The broader crypto market also saw mixed sentiment, with Bitcoin trading sideways near $83,000. Meme coins struggled to regain momentum after what had been a hot first quarter of 2025.

Elon Musk’s Political Role Impacts DOGE Sentiment

Recent backlash against Elon Musk has cast a shadow over DOGE sentiment. The billionaire entrepreneur, now heading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) within the Trump administration, has come under fire after job cuts triggered nationwide protests.

Investor sentiment, particularly among retail traders, has soured amid concerns over Musk’s political involvement and Trump’s renewed trade tariffs.

As a result, assets linked to Musk — including Tesla stock and Dogecoin — have struggled in recent weeks. Tesla’s share price closed trading at $241 on Friday, shedding 4.15% in the past trading week.

Likewise, DOGE price has shed over 12% from its local April high of $0.17 recorded on April 12. The muted price action on Sunday confirms that investors remain hesitant to enter large positions amid the 2025 DOGE Day celebrations.

Technical Analysis Points to Triangle Pattern

Dogecoin has been trading in a tight range lately, with its price movement increasingly narrowing over the past few days between $0.15 and $0.16. This narrowing range comes off a wider downside consolidation move since the beginning of April, leading to the formation of a triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart.

Crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade recently brought attention to this price structure, noting that it reflects growing indecision in the market. According to his analysis, Dogecoin’s price action has transitioned from a clear downtrend in late March into a state of consolidation over the past two weeks.

Looking at the triangle formation, it’s clear that both buyers and sellers are exercising caution. Buyers are reluctant to enter at higher levels, while sellers seem unwilling to push prices lower, creating a narrowing band of price action since April 15.

Dogecoin is now approaching the tip of the triangle. In this particular case, the structure leans toward a bullish breakout, with market behavior showing signs of upward pressure building beneath the surface by a 2.77% increase in trading volume in the past 24 hours.

Trader Tardigrade projects an uptrend that cancels out the downtrend in late March, following the classic pattern of a downtrend, indecision, and a resulting uptrend. If such a move occurs, Dogecoin could reclaim the $0.20 level within a relatively short time frame before the end of April.

Contrasting Analyst Predictions

Not all analysts share the same outlook for Dogecoin. Some predict a spectacular rally, while others forecast a sharp decline before any rally can take place.

Crypto commentator “Steph is Crypto” believes Dogecoin looks primed for an epic price surge in excess of 500%. That estimate is based on a chart pattern seen before a preceding market cycle during which Dogecoin surged 501% after trending down for several weeks.

💥 SIGNAL:$DOGE BOTTOM SIGNAL FLASHING.

PREPARE FOR +500% IN THE NEXT WEEKS! #DOGECOIN pic.twitter.com/qGI9Sea4ZJ

— STEPH IS CRYPTO (@Steph_iscrypto) April 19, 2025

If this trend holds, Dogecoin will rise as much as $0.73583 within the next few weeks, according to Steph.

However, an alternative prediction from SwallowAcademy on TradingView suggests that Dogecoin may first see a dramatic fall before it can rise. Their analysis indicates a possible 40% drop to the $0.09 support level.

SwallowAcademy observes that following a brush with close to $0.23 earlier this year, Dogecoin dropped to $0.09 before rising above $0.45. The analyst foresees the same trend happening, with a sharp drop followed by a four-times jump that might ultimately retest the $0.45 level.

Market intelligence company IntoTheBlock’s data shows dramatic shifts in the behavior of Dogecoin holders. Long-term holders who owned the cryptocurrency for more than a year fell by 2.67% last month. Medium-term holders (one to 12 months) fell by nearly 12%.

Meanwhile, short-term traders with holding time of less than one month rose by over 100%. This radical movement toward short-term speculation might signal greater price volatility since these traders typically respond rapidly to market changes.

Perhaps the most dramatic statistics come from monitoring large holder transactions. Large holder inflows increased by over 5% in the last week, as reported by IntoTheBlock. On a longer-term basis, these inflows were up 324% in the last 30 days.

This increase in whale activity indicates major investors may be positioning themselves for future price action even though daily trading continues to be dominated by smaller, short-term traders.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin was trading at $0.1573, with traders watching closely for any breakout from its current consolidation pattern.