Treasury yields steady as shutdown delays jobs, CPI

Rescheduled: January nonfarm payrolls Feb 11, CPI report Feb 13, 8:30 ET

The January nonfarm payrolls report is rescheduled to February 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the January CPI to February 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET, as reported by Barron’s. The shifts follow a partial U.S. government shutdown that paused publication of several federal economic releases.

The releases were moved from earlier target dates to allow the statistical agency to restart operations and update its release calendar following the funding lapse. All times are Eastern Time.

Why the partial shutdown delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics releases

During a funding lapse, the statistical agency suspends data collection, processing, and dissemination, which interrupts publication even if much of the survey work is complete. That operational pause created a temporary data blackout across flagship indicators.

“Due to the partial federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend data collection, processing, and dissemination,” said Emily Liddel, Associate Commissioner.

Once funding is restored, normal operations resume and the public is alerted to any changes in the release schedule. This stepwise restart helps ensure data quality, methodological consistency, and orderly dissemination.

Market implications: yields, Fed expectations, and risk sentiment

With official labor and inflation prints paused, investors lean on private and high‑frequency indicators while reassessing the near‑term policy path. The absence of fresh government data tends to elevate uncertainty and compress conviction in rate expectations.

Rate‑sensitive assets often respond to perceived labor momentum during such gaps, and front‑end rates can reprice around the return of marquee releases. Liquidity conditions and positioning may amplify moves when the reports arrive at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The forthcoming payrolls and CPI will likely refocus attention on inflation dynamics versus any labor cooling, influencing term premia and overall risk appetite. Interim signals should be treated cautiously until official data re‑anchor the narrative.

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Interim labor signals before official data returns

ADP private payrolls, reported job cuts, and January labor tone

Forbes reported 108,000 January job cuts, the most since 2009. ADP signaled softer private hiring for January.

Weekly jobless claims and Treasury yields as interim signals

ABC News noted claims rose to 231,000. Treasury yields edged lower, mirroring softer labor signals.

FAQ about nonfarm payrolls

Why did the partial government shutdown force a delay in these economic data releases?

A funding lapse triggers contingency protocols that halt data collection, processing, and dissemination at the statistical agency. Even if surveys were largely complete, publication requires operational capacity that was temporarily unavailable.

Once appropriations resume, the agency restores systems, validates estimates, and finalizes schedules. That sequence minimizes methodological drift and preserves the integrity of time‑series comparisons.

How could the data blackout affect Federal Reserve rate expectations and Treasury yields?

When official data are paused, markets lean on noisier proxies, widening uncertainty bands around policy trajectories. Treasury pricing can become more sensitive to incremental signals until payrolls and CPI provide clearer guidance.

As the reports return, front‑end yields and rate‑sensitive sectors may recalibrate to the balance of labor conditions and inflation. The extent of repricing depends on incoming details and prevailing positioning.