Top Analyst Identifies How “Dumb Money” Could Miss Next XRP Upsurge

Market analyst JD has called attention to an XRP trend that could result in investors’ referring to the “dumb money” missing out on the next XRP upsurge, citing similarities with the 2017 cycle.

In a post on X, JD reminded his audience of the 2017 market cycle, which began with XRP underperforming while other crypto assets saw massive gains. Historical data confirms this disclosure. 

The 2017 Bull Market

Notably, the broader market started witnessing signs of the 2017 bull market in October 2015. While the market occasionally saw monthly declines, it recorded a general uptrend, with Bitcoin (BTC) and most assets witnessing higher highs and higher lows.

The bull market began properly in September 2016, with BTC already up 58% as of December 2016. However, XRP only saw an 11% rise. At the start of 2017, XRP dropped by 18% from January to February, while BTC further increased by 22%.

JD presented a chart detailing that the price drops in early 2017 occurred with XRP already trading below a four-year downtrend. Due to XRP’s underperformance in the early stages of the 2017 bull market, several market participants sold off their XRP holdings for other crypto assets that were doing well.

JD calls these investors “dumb money.” According to him, they complained and capitulated their holdings before the eventual breakout. After the initial underperformance, XRP recorded an explosive price surge that outpaced almost all mainstream assets at the time, leading to a 600x increase.

This upsurge resulted in an all-time high of $3.31 in January 2018. The individuals who sold off their holdings before this rally forfeited the gains that came with it. JD believes this pattern will play out again in the current cycle.

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XRP Underperforming Again

Interestingly, XRP has been underperforming since the broader market started showing signs of the start of the bull run. Despite being 20% up since October, XRP has gained at a lower pace compared to other cryptocurrencies, such as BTC and Solana (SOL).

Solana recently surpassed XRP in market capitalization. This reality has resulted in sustained complaints among XRP investors, with some hinting at offloading their holdings. JD recently noted that this pattern would result in the capitulation of the XRP market recorded in 2017.

Nonetheless, a Dutch stock trader argued that XRP might not be able to repeat the 600x rally of 2017. He pointed out that the token’s market cap has already seen a substantial rise, leaving very little room for further growth.

In response, JD acknowledged the unfeasible nature of a 600x projection. However, he contested that XRP’s current technical indicators point to a possible 8 to 10x upsurge when the rally materializes. XRP currently trades for $0.6210. A 10x increase would lead to $6.21.